Bucks Diary

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Win Contributions in the First Half of Game One

Ooh, doesn't look good for the Cs. Here's my quick Win Contribution calculations. They show that Kobe is doing horribly, and yet the Lakers lead. Here's why:

The Lakers Team Win Score for the half is 48.6, right at their playoff average. The Celtics are way down at 36.8, about where they were for the Pistons series except they're up against a team that is much more efficient than Detroti. So far the Lakers have played a much better half, and that's with Kobe doing nothing.

Fisher is dominating for the Lakers. The Celtics point guards are scoring but not doing anything else, and thus Fisher is crushing them. Radmanovic looks great.

But the real story is how piss poor everyone on the Celtics is playing except for Garnett, who is having a monster game. Without Garnett, this thing is a Los Angeles blowout.

Pierce, Perkins and Posey are more than cancelling Garnett out with their terrible play. The only other guy contributing is Powe. Why isn't Rivers playing Powe more? He's contributing. I'd put Garnett at C and bring in Powe.

Lakers

Bryant...-1.117
Fisher...+1.995
Odom...-0.253
Radmanovic...+0.725
Gasol...-0.250
Vujacic...+0.173
Turiaf...-0.387
Walton...+0.127

Celtics

Rondo...-0.920
Allen...-0.266
Garnett...+2.578
Pierce...-1.987
Perkins...-1.240
Cassell...-0.003
Posey...-2.010
Powe...+0.880
Brown...-0.300

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