Bucks Diary

Saturday, October 18, 2008

True PVOA numbers show Bucks are improving a bit


Last week I did "Point Value over Average" computations for each of the Bucks exhibition games, but those were "dirty" averages because I included the Bucks games when I calculated the opponents overall efficiency averages (I had to because of the small sample sizes for each opponent).

I've gone back now and "washed out" the Bucks games from the opponents efficiency averages to provide a true "points allowed/scored per possession" comparison between the Bucks performance against each opponent and the collective performances of that opponent's other opponents.


Improvement... in baby steps

The True PVOA numbers are, if I recall, fairly close to the dirty PVOA numbers (although those numbers, of course, didn't include the recent two Golden State Warrior games). That is, the team is slightly below the comparative average on offense, and way below the comparative average on defense. But the Bucks overall PVOA trajectory -- on both sides of the court -- is starting to turn upward.

Now, let's not get too excited about this yet. I write that warning because the "Good" defensive games have both come against the same opponent, and in a highly unusual setting (China), and therefore may not reflect a true trend.

But, hey, its better than the opposite, isn't it?

Oh, one last point... you notice the one game that Michael Redd sat out the Bucks had by far their best defensive performance against average? I'm not sayin'... I'm just sayin'.

1 Comments:

At October 18, 2008 at 9:29 PM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

Keep doing this even though I know it takes a lot of time. This is good stuff to read and people are reading it.

 

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