Bucks Diary

Friday, November 07, 2008

I'm ditching the TWC Boxscore and replacing it with two new systems of analysis


I'm suspending the "Total Win Contribution" Boxscore for now. I liked it, but it simply took way too long to complete. And because I felt the need to finish each one on the night of the corresponding game to prevent staleness, the TWC boxscore was costing me a lot of sleep. That's no good.

I will still provide the same information as I did in the TWC Boxscores, only now it will be done on a cumalative weekly basis and I will call it my TWC "Player Value Rankings".

On game nights, replacing the TWC boxscore will be a "Performance Rating" boxscore. I have patterned it after the "Player Ratings" you get each week on FootballOutsiders.com. My performance rating system will be based upon Win Score, and will use the same numeration system as "Win Contribution", but unlike Win Score and Win Contribution, the Performance Rating number will not necessarily correlate with the player's impact on a win or a loss. Instead it will tell you how he and the team performed compared against the way the rest of the NBA has performed to date against the same opponent.

Quick example: Tonight the Bucks play the Celtics. Lets say the Celtics are holding point guards to a 3.1 Win Score per 48 minutes. Lets further suppose Luke Ridnour posts a 4.2 and that he plays in roughly 15% of the minutes. In that case my performance rating for him will be a +0.165. That number, being over +0.000, will tell Bucks fans that Ridnour had an above average night in terms of Win Score production as compared to other point guards who have faced the Celtics.

So that's the Offensive Rating. Here's how the "Defensive Rating" works. Let's say Kevin Garnett comes into the game averaging 12.1, and against the Bucks he gets a 14.2 over 15% of the minutes. Then the Bucks would receive a defensive rating visavis Garnett of -0.315, meaning that did a very poor job defending him (everything in the boxscore will be geared toward Bucks fans, so superlative night by an opponent will be represented as a "negative" defensive rating).

Because everything will be against the average, it will theoretically provide an opponent neutral evaluation of each Buck and the team in general. And as the season wears on, it will really give Bucks fans a solid indication of where the team stands in the Association.

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