Bucks Diary

Monday, November 10, 2008

Reranking NBA.com's MVP rankings according to demonstrable value


NBA.com has come out with a very early ranking of MVP candidates. Its all messed up. Its based on guess work and probably conventional wisdom. Its not based at all on demonstrable value to the player's team.

Using the "Total Win Contribution" metric, I have reranked NBA.com's 10 candidates. Click here to see my Reranking of NBA.com's MVP Ranking. Please note that other players have made excellent contributions but are not included in my list because I limited myself to the haphazard selections made by NBA.com. Please also note the last three players on the list should be nowhere near an MVP list at this point. Their contributions have been either mediocre or downright harmful..

Comments about the list

1. Kobe isn''t even close to being number one. Chris Paul is doing things no person that small should be able to do. +8 Wins Produced over Average is considered outstanding... the little guy's' on pace to double that!! Lets face it... at the moment he is dominating the NBA at 6 foot nothing, a hundred nothing! Amazing stuff. I wish the Bucks had come in third.

2. Dwight Howard continues to be underrated by the so-called experts. What else is new? He just piles up wins and covers up Orlando's flaws, that's all. Oh, but he can't shoot from the outside (sarcasm).

3. What a comeback for Dwayne Wade. He had an awful season last year, but it seems he's all better now.

4. Not only is Chris Bosh NOT an MVP candidate this season, his defense has been so uncharacteristically horrifying, he is a prime candidate for my season ending "Bizarro" MVP, otherwise known as the "Most Harmful Player" award. Last season, you will recall, it went to Jeff Green of the then Seattle Supersonics. As you can see from the chart, Bosh's negative Win Contribution would rank him in the top 3 last season amongst the NBA's most harmful players.

5. Let me close by noting that it is solid analysis like this that has ROCKETED me to number 357 or something shitty like that on Ballhype.com's Blog Rankings. I think I'm right behind two French basketweaving blogs and I just snuck ahead of Grandma Betty's Competitive Tomato Growing blog. What a joke.

17 Comments:

At November 10, 2008 at 4:49 PM, Anonymous Healthcare Economist said...

Don't get discouraged by your crappy ball hype rating. I really like your blog and although your level-headed, statistical analysis may not get the flash of other blogs, it provides more insightful analysis. Unfortunately, since the Bucks appear to be headed towards another crappy season, the statistics don't paint a pretty picture. Still, keep up the good work! I look forward to reading your blog after every Bucks game.

 
At November 10, 2008 at 6:42 PM, Anonymous Blake said...

Another crappy season only brings in more crappy prospects who play out of position because we tell them to.

 
At November 10, 2008 at 7:26 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Healthcare Economist,

Comments like that make the blogging worth while. And truth be told, most of the harder work is a form of self entertainment... I myself want to know the answers. Plus, there's something great about remaining loyal to a struggling team. That's why I love the posters on RealGM and the readers here. Their true Green and Red.

Of course, I have to check myself sometimes too.

 
At November 10, 2008 at 7:36 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Blake,

Get out of my head! You're absolutely right.

While everyone is praising Hammond for hitting on Moute, I'm not. I think he got lucky... in the sense that he probably drafted Moute because he was "athletic" or some stupid reason like that that has no direct correlation to success in the pros.

Why am I being so harsh? Because if he nailed Moute based upon keen judgment, how does he explain Alexander?

I realize I'm babbling here but one more point.

You know how I'm constantly pushing Win Score this Win Score that, and I kind of sound New Agey? The fact is, Win Score is the most common sense conservative idea in the world.

Sure, its a strange name, but behind the name is a common sense purpose: identifying which of the traditionally recorded activities during a basketball game tend to produce successful results. Thats all it is!

Wouldn't you think, in the information age, in a billion dollar industry like basketball, someone would have thought found "Win Score" well before a professor from California did??

Think about it. Its like Toyota guessing which processes lead to maximum car production. Its bizarre.

I'll have more to say in the future.

Ty

 
At November 10, 2008 at 8:35 PM, Anonymous Blake said...

haha. great minds think alike Ty!

I think Hammond drafted Alexander just on his athletic ability and Moute just on the fact that he could play some pretty good defense. I don't think Hammond was counting on Moute to be anybody big but more of a role-player over the years. But right now he's looking like a poor mans Paul Pierce! He plays great D just like him but may need to learn some scoring ability from Jefferson or Redd.

Win Score is always very accurate, it's a real shame that GM's around the league don't use it (at least, I dont think they do!) It's a great way of determining how much you're players are helping the team win. I think it's pretty obvious, though, that the Raptors GM isn't using this system.

 
At November 10, 2008 at 9:08 PM, Blogger Ian said...

Great blog, buddy. I'm into statistical analysis and mediocre (but improving) bucks basketball. new fan.

 
At November 10, 2008 at 10:14 PM, Anonymous J Rock said...

Chris Paul is amazing. It's a shame the Bucks didn't take the best player available, rather then drafting on need or potential. I blame Babcock.

 
At November 13, 2008 at 11:38 AM, Anonymous Oleh said...

Agreed with what has been said. I visit numerous NBA blogs, but none seem to offer the statistical analysis that I appreciate. In addition, it makes it more interesting that the Bucks have flaws that the numbers reveal. I love hearing how the rest of the world clamors for more CV when it is obvious he usually tends to drag down the team.

Anyways, keep up the awesome work. :)

 
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