Bucks Diary

Thursday, February 16, 2006

How Inept is Magliore's Offense?


Last night I witnessed Bucks C Jamaal Magliore miss a 5 foot hook shot, taken from in front of the basket, by at least a foot to the left. It was like he was shooting at his own imaginary basket. I have never seen anyone miss a hook shot that badly.

This season I have seen so much offensive ineptitude from Mr. Magliore on so many levels (turnovers, missed shots, bad passes, missed free throws), I thought there must be someway to demonstrate statistically just how useless (and even counterproductive) it is to involve him on the offensive end. What I wanted to know was this: when Magliore handles the basketball, and tries some sort of offensive move, how often does it result in points for the Bucks compared to his teammates?

A player can produce points either as made baskets, assisted baskets, or made free throws. So what I did was I added each of the Bucks made field goals, assists, and productive fouls drawn (total times fouled while shooting multiplied by free throw percentage), and divided that number by the player's total number of field goal attempts (including attempts in which he was fouled), plus all of his assists, plus all of his turnovers. The number produced by that equation I call his "offensive trustworthiness" number. The statistic is not really a perfect measure ( for instance I ignored all of the player's non-assist passes ) but it is none the less illuminating. Here are the results amongst the Bucks regular players from best to worst:

Bogut 55.0%
Williams 53.8%
Ford 53.1%
Bell 51.3%
Redd 50.5%
Gadzuric 50.5%
Simmons 50.0%
Welsch 49.3%
Magliore 41.6%

As you can see, Magliore's "Offensive Trustworthiness" number is substantially worse than any other Buck. So much so, I decided to test it randomly against some of the least effective offensive performers I could think of. The players that came to mind were Kwami Brown of the Lakers, Michael Olowakandi of the Boston Celtics, Eddy Curry of the Knicks (only because he is prone to turnovers just like Magliore), and Ben Wallace (because his reputation is one of offensive ineptitude -- though I will show this rep is not deserved).

Well, none of the above listed players were as bad as Magliore. Here are their individual results (I used Kandi's numbers from last year):

B Wallace 54.7%
E Curry 46.8%
K Brown 45.0%
Olowakandi 43.7%

I quit trying after those four because my point, I think, had been proven: Magliore is an awful, awful offensive player, and the more he touches the ball the more bad things happen for the Bucks. He is a poor shooter from the field, a poor shooter from the free throw line, a poor handler of the ball, and both a reluctant and poor passer out of the post. These numbers are so bad, in fact, I'm beginning to wonder whether the positive contributions he makes on the boards even begin to offset the destruction he wroughts on offense.

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