Bucks Diary

Friday, March 31, 2006

Bogut's Rookie Season compared to Rasheed Wallace's

In attempting to fairly judge top pick Andrew Bogut's productivity this year -- which has understandably disappointed some -- I tried to think of a player whose rookie season was the most situationally similar to his. I thought this would provide a level evaluation.

I came up with Detroit Pistons' PF Rasheed Wallace. Why? Because the facts surrounding Wallace's 1995 rookie season with the Washington Bullets were nearly identical to Bogut's rookie season with the Bucks.

Here's what I mean. Both men are 6'11''. Both men came out after their sophomore seasons in college, both men were 21 years old during their rookie seasons, both men played center in college but were forced to adapt to playing power forward in their rookie years, and each played for a mediocre team (Washington was 39-43 during Wallace's rookie campaign) rather than the true bottom feeding team that most high draft picks play for.

So, how do they compare? In terms of overall production, as reflected by each player's rookie CG score, its not even close. Bogut has outperformed Wallace's rookie campaign by a wide margin. (Remember, CG= (Points+Rebounds+Assists+Steals+Blocks) - (FGs Missed + FTs Missed + Turnovers) / Minutes Played x 48. Thus, playing time is of no consequence, its statistics per minute that count.) Here then are their respective rookie scores:

Bogut 24.1

Wallace 18.89

Please note that Wallace had a better PPG (10.1 per game) than Bogut now holds (8.9 per game), but that Wallace was a much poorer percentage shooter, a less productive rebounder, a less proflific passer, and he turned the ball over more per minute played. It should be noted also that Wallace's numbers, as compared to top rookies from other seasons, are rather poor. His age combined with the position change, I would surmise, accounted for his struggles.

Which, then, underscores Bogut's achievement, because he is operating under the very same conditions Wallace operated under. Thus, while Bogut hasn't set the world on fire as one would expect a top draft choice to do, if his age and unique circumstances are taken into account, I'd say he hasn't done half bad. Let's at least see what he does next year. That will be the acid test.


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At April 1, 2006 at 12:15 AM, Anonymous Matt said...

Something to consider: Bogut hasn't attempted a single three point shot this year. If you take away Wallace's 82 rookie attempts, he shot 51%, pretty much the same as Bogut this year.

Plus Wallace was playing with Chris Webber (at least for a little bit) and Juwon Howard in his prime, not to mention Gheorge Muresan, who averaged 14.5 points and 9.6 boards that year.

No one Bogut is playing with has put up nearly the same stats as Washington's other big men from that year, aside from Magliore on the boards. Plus, I think Bogut was drafted so high because it was thought he'd stick at center. He's just not nearly as valuable or unique as a power forward. Just my two cents.

(As a Pistons fan, I'm admittedly a fan of Wallace, but I don't think I have any hidden biases for/against Bogut.)

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