Bucks Diary

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Statistical Proof that TJ Ford Sucks


A lot of fans judge players according to their scoring average, but there's a lot more to winning basketball than scoring. To accurately evaluate a player's performance we need a statistic that rewards every single contribution he makes on the court while somehow penalizing him for all of his detriments. Now we have it. I've hit upon a simple, easy-to-understand, and extremely accurate way to measure and evaluate each player's total performance. I call it the "Contribution Gauge", or "CG". CG is a straightforward analytical tool, not some bizarre calculus equation, so its quite accessible to regular fans. Sidenote: Since my formula is 70% derivative, and since its probably in existence in some other form, I'm not claiming invention, just revelation.

At heart its a sum of all the positive stats a player has accumulated (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks) minus all of his negative stats (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers). This is Dean Oliver's "Credits" concept. I was drawn to the "Credit" formula because it recognizes all-around excellence and because it punishes stat-happy "gunners" -- guys who score 40 a night but takes 60 shots to get there. Oliver's concept recognizes that the way a player gets his points affects his value to the team just as much as the points themselves.

So that's the base number. Once I get that, I just divide it by the number of minutes that player has played, and then multiply the result I get by 48. I use "minutes played" because I didn't want to punish a player for lack of playing time -- what I want to analyze is how well he contributes when he gets the chance to play. I decided to multiply by 48 to demonstrate what each player would contribute on average if allowed to play an entire game. That means CG isn't an average necessarily, but because it is based solely on the actual statistics produced by each given player, it is a nearly perfect way to determine a players all-around productivity.

CG Numbers that provide prospective

To start with, let me give you some current season and career CGs so you have a baseline for evaluating the Bucks numbers listed below:

Good, Mediocre, and Bad CGs Produced in 2005-06

Kevin Garnett 36.7
Shawn Marion 34.1
Dwayne Wade 33.8
Dirk Nowitzki 33.1
Kobe Bryant 33.0
LeBron James 32.6
Tim Duncan 32.1
Steve Nash 32.1
Allen Iverson 29.7
Chris Paul 28.8
Pau Gasol 27.9
Carmelo Anthony 26.9
Ray Allen 25.6
Chris Mihm 23.3
Smush Parker 17.1
Deron Williams 15.9
Kwame Brown 15.1
Desmond Mason 12.6
Martell Webster 10.8

Career CGs of some of the Greats:

Magic Johnson 38.0
Larry Bird 37.2
Charles Barkley 36.8
Michael Jordan 36.6
Hakeem Olajuwon 36.5
Bill Walton 35.6
Kevin McHale 31.6
John Stockton 31.4
Isiah Thomas 26.75

CGs for 2005-06 Milwaukee Bucks

Joe Smith 29.3
Notable Comparisons: Pau Gasol 27.9

Dan Gadzuric 25.4
Notable Comparisons: Zaza Pachulia 21.6; Joel Pryzbilla 23.5

Andrew Bogut 24.3
Notable Comparisons: Marvin Williams 17.7; Charlie Frye 25.6; R. Wallace 24.3

Michael Redd 23.9
Notable Comparisons: Paul Pierce 30.7; J. Richardson 24.7; Mike Miller 23.0

Mo Williams 21.6
Notable Comparisons: Sherman Douglas (c) 21.38; Jameer Nelson 23.3

Jamaal Magliore 20.7
Notable Comparisons: Chris Mihm 23.3; Luc Longley (c) 21.6; Randy Bruer (c) 22.8

Bobby Simmons 18.9
Notable Comparisons: K. Van Horn 19.4; Fred Roberts (c) 20.7; Todd Day (c) 19.4

TJ Ford 17.2
Notable Comparisons: Tyrone Lue 19.06; Chris Duhon 18.3; Smush Parker 17.1

Toni Kukoc 16.9

Charlie Bell 16.1

Jiri Welsch 14.7

Observations

1) If Terri Stotts wants to keep his job he must immediately remove TJ Ford and Jamaal Magliore from the starting lineup. These numbers show just how awful TJ Ford is. I had to go to the dregs of the NBA's point guards to find any who have CGs as low as his. Chris Duhon, a second round pick, and not highly regarded at that, is outproducing Ford! And Magliore is getting outplayed by stiffs like Chris Mihm and Joel Pryzbilla. Most damning: his numbers this season are below the career numbers of the pathetic Randy Bruer, a man generally regarded as the worst starting center in Bucks history.

2) Dan Gadzuric has clearly produced when given the chance to play. These numbers bear that out. He should take over Magliore's minutes immediately.

3) Bogut has produced nice numbers for a guy playing out of position. As I suspected, he is the most productive player among the starters. One wonders how he would fare at his natural position, center. He should be moved there post haste and paired with the highly productive Joe Smith. I've been saying that for quite sometime and these numbers prove I wasn't blowing smoke.

4) As we all suspected, Michael Redd is overrated. He cried when he wasn't named to the all-star team and Paul Pierce was, but Pierce is so much more productive its silly. Redd is certainly not a maximum contract player. He overshoots, and he is one dimensional. He would be a decent player off the bench for a championship team. He is certainly not a cornerstone to build around. The Bucks made a serious mistake paying him that much money and it may haunt them for years.

5) Overall, these numbers show the Bucks have a serious shortage of productive players. They are getting below average production from the center, point guard, and small forward positions. They will never win a championship with this team. They are going nowhere in the playoffs, even if they manage to back their way in. They must look to revamp this summer. Everyone except Bogut and Mo Williams should be put in play as trade bait. Harris should look to acquire players who have high CGs but aren't highly regarded (in other words -- values), and look to dump those current Bucks players whose reputations around the league seriously out-strip their actual production on the court.

3 Comments:

At April 9, 2006 at 11:16 AM, Anonymous Conor said...

Dude... you're a freaking retard.
That is the most bull I have read in a very long time... remove TJ and Jamaal. Ha. Do you have any idea how terrible the Milwaukee Bucks would be without Ford's passing and quickness, and Magloire's rebounding and inside presence?? We would probably be one of the worst teams in the league and, FOR SURE, not a playoff team.
TJ Ford is the guy who gels our squad together. Without TJ, the Bucks lose.

Retard.

 
At July 2, 2006 at 1:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey i love your blog but u still havent told us wat charlie v's cg is. if i knew wat his cg was then i could compare him and tj and see if it really WAS a good trade.

 
At February 16, 2013 at 12:42 AM, Blogger e jerry said...

And where is Ford six years later?

I'm down with your analysis.

 

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