Bucks Diary

Monday, July 03, 2006

Comparing relative productivity of Ford vs. Villanueva

Someone requested that I post the "CG" numbers of TJ Ford and Charlie Villanueva. What I was labeling "CG" is actually refered to by NBA.com as "Eff48". Essentially "Eff48" reflects the relative productivity of each player for each minute he is on the court. It computes his positives (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks) then subtracts his negatives (Fg missed, Ft missed, turnovers) divides that by minutes played and then multiples the result by 48. I think it is the most revealing statistic in basketball.

Anyway, TJ Ford's Eff48 was 19.37. The average Eff48 for starting point guards in the Association was 22.29, and the mean was 21.64. In terms of Eff48 production, then, TJ Ford was in the bottom half of the Association (22nd overall).

Charlie Villanueva's Eff48 was 23.06. Now, I'm running into a bit of a gray area here. Villanueva is slated to play power forward for the Bucks. However, Chris Bosh was, I believe, the starting power forward for the Raptors, according to all the on-line depth charts I have seen. That would have made Villanueva the starting small forward. So I think the proper comparison for Villanueva's 2005-06 numbers is with other starting small forwards. If that is the case, he ranked in the upper half of the Association. The average Eff48 for starting small forwards was 21.83, and the mean was 22.06. By either measure he was amongst the top 12-15 most productive SFs.

Now, if he is considered a power forward, then he is around the average. But I don't think that is fair, because if he did indeed play small forward, he was not afforded the opportunity to accumulate statistics in the same way a power forward could. We'll have to just wait and see how productive he can be at the 4.


At July 3, 2006 at 10:13 PM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

The hard part with Charlie is that he had 7 games last year with 20+ pts. and 10+ rebounds.....and that doesn't include the 48pt game where he only got 9 boards.

That's the weakness of Charlie from what you read...his inconsistency....statistically he'd have a stunning game and then regress back to a night or two of 10pts and 5 rebounds.

Whether that's a function of Bosh or not, who knows.

But, as they say with a highly touted rookies, you toss out worries about inconsistency. The more important question is did the rookie have some great games where he dominated? Yes, in the case of Charlie V.

I can't think of any all-stars who didn't have a few dominant games as a rookie....no matter how young they were. Jermaine O'Neal being stashed on the bench in Portland is the only exception to the rule I can think of.....even guys like KG, Kobe, T-Mac, etc. who had inconsistent rookie years, had games of statistical greatness...

Guys like Darko had no games like this as a rookie....hence I'm very skeptical he'll ever come close to being an All-star...solid player someday? Maybe.

I used the same measuring stick with Marcus Haislip after year one....the fact he couldn't go off for maybe two or three 20 pt games given the opportunities he had, told me he was a bust.


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