Bucks Diary

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Bucks small forwards vs. the average NBA small forward


I am in the middle of doing a statistical analysis of the 31 NBA small forwards who saw the most playing time last season. I am ranking them in 9 seperate categories: defensive field goal % (dFG), offensive field goal % (eFG), offensive field goal % on jumpers only (jump eFG), offensive field goal % on close shots only (close eFG), Basket attack % (FTA/FGA), 82games Passer Rating (Pass), 82games Rebounder rating (Reb), 82games Ballhandler rating (Ball), and productive efficiency per 48 minutes of play (Eff48). I then plan to take the sum total of each player's ranking (from 1st to 31st) in each of the categories and then assign each player an overall ranking beginning with the player who had the lowest cumulative score.

I have so far calculated an average score in each of the nine categories, and, since this is a Milwaukee Bucks blog, I initially compared the numbers produced by the Bucks two primary small forwards (Simmons and Patterson) against those NBA averages to see how the Bucks stack up.

The results were somewhat mixed, with Patterson doing better overall.

Grading Simmons and Patterson

Bobby Simmons was below average in 6 of the 9 categories. Simmons graded out as a poor defender, an an above average shooter, an outstanding jump shooter, a poor finisher in close, a poor player at attacking the basket, a slightly above average passer, a below average rebounder, a slightly below average ballhandler, and a below average efficient producer.

Newly acquired Ruben Patterson fared a little bit better. He was below average in only 4 of the 9 categories. Patterson graded out as an above average defender, an above average shooter, a very poor jump shooter, an above average finisher in close, an above average player at attacking the basket, an average passer, a slightly below average rebounder, a below average ballhandler, and a below average efficient producer.

Here are the numbers:

Average NBA Small Forward

dFG: ...........................48.0%
eFG: ...........................47.6%
Jump eFG: .....................42.0%
Close eFG: ......................59.3%
BA: ..............................29.7%
Pass: ............................3.4
Reb: .............................17.1
Ball: ..............................12.7
Eff48: ...........................21.4

Bobby Simmons

dFG:.............................53.0%(-5.0)
eFG:.............................51.8%(+4.2)
Jump eFG:......................51.9%(+9.9)
Close eFG:.......................51.4%(-7.9)
BA:................................22.8%(-6.9)
Pass:..............................4.0(+0.6)
Reb:...............................14.0(-3.1)
Ball:................................11.0(-1.7)
Eff48:.............................19.2(-2.2)

Ruben Patterson

dFG:...............................45.5%(+2.5)
eFG:...............................53.3%(+5.7)
Jump eFG:........................28.4%(-13.6)
Close eFG:.........................64.2%(+4.9)
BA:..................................38.8%(+9.1)
Pass:................................3.4 (+0.1)
Reb:.................................14.3(-2.8)
Ball:..................................9.7(-3.0)
Eff48:...............................19.5(-1.9)

Footnote: Patterson's numbers, except for his Eff48, come from 04-05, the last season he spent entirely with one team. It would have been extremely difficult to compilate his numbers accurately otherwise.

4 Comments:

At August 22, 2006 at 11:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your results seem in keeping with the "truthiness" sense I have, and I'm sure I'm not alone here, that Simmons is just plain soft all around, an $8 million albatross. Still, in fairness and to be more accurate, it would be good to see two years worth of data on him. (He's been a starter for only the last 2 years right?) Keep up the good work - the Bucks are getting more interesting and your blog is always a fun read.

 
At August 23, 2006 at 11:42 AM, Blogger Sky Hook said...

He's made of muscle, yet he won't go to the lane; He's strong and quick, yet he struggles defending in the post -- I'd say you are on to the truth for sure.

Thanks for the nice words.

 
At August 23, 2006 at 9:46 PM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

Interesting stats....we perhaps now have the perfect "platoon" small forward....where Bobby is weak, Ruben is strong and vice-versa.

I won't be down on Bobby until after this season....last year, many on this team "underachieved" when compared to prior seasons...that's either due to being a newly put together team in their first year together or Stotts. We'll find our answer in the next 8-months.

 
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