Bucks Diary

Sunday, November 05, 2006

Bucks disturbingly top-heavy


The Bucks are off to a wild start in 2006-07. They've sandwiched two extremely impressive wins around a puzzling loss. Why the wild swings of fortune? I believe it is because they're way too top heavy.

Here's what I mean. The Bucks have gotten spectacular production -- in Eff48 terms -- from four starters: Charlie Villanueva (35.67), Andrew Bogut (33.68), Michael Redd (30.49), and Mo Williams (25.87). But no one else on the team is producing above the NBA average of 20.12. Hell, except for C Brian Skinner (17.36), no one is even producing above the 16.00 Mendoza line that seperates the merely mediocre producers from the truly awful ones.

What's the problem?

This suggests the Bucks terrific start might be unsustainable. While Bogut and Villanueva are no doubt improved players, its hard to expect them to continue producing at, essentially, superstar levels (32.00+ is generally considered elite production). In fact, they both can probably be expected to level off somewhere in the high 20s at best. Even Redd's current level of productivity seems aberrational. His career Eff48 is 23.47.

If I am right, then that's a lot of production that looks as though it will be lost. And if that happens the Bucks will be at a marked competitive disadvantage.

The Toronto game illustrates my point. On that night Bogut and Villanueva produced well, but Redd and Williams were off their games a little. That is to be expected over the course of an 82 game schedule. The problem was no one on the bench stepped up. Consequently the Bucks were blown out by an inferior team.

Possible solutions

Can this situation be rectified? Sure. Hopeful sources of future supplemental contributions are Ruben Patterson (15.93), Steve Blake (10.79), and Charlie Bell (9.07). All three are capable of better. Patterson is well off his career productivity so his numbers should rise. Bell and Blake have been awful and have show at various times that they can produce decent numbers.

But outside of those three, its hard to see anyone else filling the void. Skinner will always give you mediocre numbers for a big man. Illyasova (-6.96), despite an impressive training camp, has looked hopelessly out-of-his-depth (so much so that he was given the "please score" treatment by the home crowd at the end of the Kings game -- a treatment usually reserved for the laughably incompetent). It was always folly to expect a lot from rookie David Noel (10.03), and, well, I guess Gadzuric (10.77) could relocate his game.

If the preceding do not pick up their level of play, the Milwaukee Bucks might as well take the court every night as a rock band titled "Four for Fighting". Maybe it can work. It has so far.

1 Comments:

At November 9, 2006 at 12:01 PM, Blogger Cheesehead Craig said...

Great post Sky.
It certainly will be interesting to see if someone steps up big from the bench *cough* Simmons and Bell *cough* to help spark this team.

 

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