Bucks Diary

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Mo Williams still the Bucks barometer

Would that I were Bucks coach Terry Stotts, I would do everything in my power to get PG Mo Williams off early and often. Why? He is the hinge upon which the Milwaukee Bucks turn.

For the second season in a row the following maxim has held: As Mo goes, so go the Bucks. In games won, his Eff48 is a sterling 30.88. In games lost, it is an atrocius 9.66. And if you recall, I pointed out in an earlier posting that his Games Won/Games Lost production differential was the highest in the NBA during the 2005-06 regular season as well.

Indeed, rarely have the Bucks lost in the last two seasons when Mo Williams has had a productive game. And rarely have they won when he has been unproductive. That includes the postseason. The "Mo indicator" was in stark evidence in the playoff series against the Pistons. In the game they won, he was awesome. In the games they lost, he was invisible.

So, if this is taken as an accepted rule, the question becomes how do you strategize to improve the odds that Williams will have a productive game? Well, as I further pointed out in another posting, Williams is, statistically speaking, amongst the streakiest shooters in the Association. Meaning, if he makes a field goal it is far more likely that he will make the next, and vice versa.

Thus, the strategy for Coach Stotts ought to be the following. Run plays early that free Williams for either high percentage jump shots or, more ideally, layups. Anything to get him rolling early. If Williams gets into the game in its initial phases, history shows he will produce throughout. If not, he seems to scuffle.

And then the Bucks lose.


At November 9, 2006 at 11:22 PM, Blogger treego14 said...

While I appreciate your number crunching analysis, I hardly find stats such as this very revealing.

Basically, we are saying, "Team X plays better (i.e, wins more) when Player X is playing at a high level." Well, since the team is made of players including Player X, why should we be surprised that good performing players tend to help the W-L record and poor performing players tend to drag down the W-L record?

It seems to be a function of common sense more than anything else.

Enjoy your blog, nonetheless. All the best to you. :)

At November 10, 2006 at 8:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The same could be said about Bogut this season. His last two games he was invisible and the Bucks lost. The two game they won, he was key in the wins.

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