Bucks Diary

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Is Bogut just Kent Benson with an Ozzie accent?

No defense...no rebounding...no bench production...no fan support...no problem for the Bucks! In front of a sparse Tuesday night crowd at the Bradley Center, the Bucks rode their starters to another win over a sub-.500 team, the Seattle Supersonics, 94-93.

But the victory didn't impress Charley Rosen of Foxsports.com. He sees the Bucks as a team of limited talent heading nowhere.

Bogut a bust?

He was particularly hard on Andrew Bogut. He believes Bogut lacks the athleticism and skill to compete at the center position. He points out, rightly, that Bogut can't really guard anyone (someone named Johan Petro absolutely schooled him in limited duty last night). He never blocks shots, and he gets many of his own shots blocked. And he isn't as great a rebounder as I once believed. As Rosen points out, and Bucks fans will have noticed, most of the rebounds he gets fall right into his lap.

Folks, I know Rosen can be a bit of a know-it-all a**hole, but, on this score, I think he may be on to something. It may be time for us to consider the possibility that Andrew Bogut may never get better than he is right now. And right now he's decidedly below average.

It pains me to admit that. But its true. He plays in cement shoes. How is that ever going to change? I don't think it will. Thus, he may be headed to the historical purgatory occupied by the likes of Pervis Ellison, Joe Barry Carroll, Joe Smith, and our own former Milwaukee Buck Kent Benson... decent players who could never justify their status as number one overall picks.

Comparing Bogut to Benson: Benson Wins!

Let's compare Bogut with Kent Benson. First of all, if you look closely at the numbers, Benson wasn't a terrible player. Let's debunk that myth. He had a decent touch on his shot and he grabbed his share of rebounds. He just lacked the physicality to bang in the middle, and he lacked the quickness to play on the perimeter. But he wasn't a bust. He just wasn't a number one pick. And, more importantly in Milwaukee, he was no Kareem. Not even close. So you could say he was simply a victim of historical circumstance. He never really had a chance.

And Bogut seems headed for the same fate. At the same point in their respective careers, Bogut isn't close to being as productive as Benson. Benson's Eff48 from his second season (30.57) is much better than Bogut's has been thus far (22.03). In fact, in his career thus far, Bogut has yet to have even a single month of production that equalled Benson's career average (25.66).

History suggests he won't improve very much

But can't Bogut improve, you ask? That's what I used to hang my hat on, too. But a look at some comparable centers from the recent past reveals that the numbers they produce in their second season are generally eerily similar to the numbers they will produce for their career. At least, they don't go from the low 20's (where Bogut lingers) to the superstar 30s.

That said, here is my sampling of numbers produced by current and postcurrent centers, placed in completely random order, for your consideration (The player's Second Season Eff48 is listed first and followed by his Career Eff48 in parenthesis):

Vlade Divac...............29.19 (28.57)

Luc Longley..............21.39 (21.62)

Joe Barry Carroll......25.44 (26.44)

Jack Sikma................29.47 (29.93)

Sam Bowie.................28.73 (26.12)

Raef LaFrentz...........25.77 (25.21)

Shawn Bradley..........24.66 (25.63)

Adonal Foyle..............21.25 (21.50)

Eddy Curry.................25.53 (23.14)

Tyson Chandler..........24.86 (24.45)

Michael Olowakandi.....18.90 (19.11)

Bill Walton.....................39.03 (37.53)

Yao Ming.......................30.1 (31.4)

Jermaine O'Neal...........27.72* (27.48)

Darryl Dawkins..............30.10* (29.04)

Radaslov Nesterovic......19.70 (21.15)

Chris Mihm.....................22.18 (22.23)

Ralph Sampson...............29.85 (29.67)

Michael Olowakandi.......18.90 (19.11)

Pervis Ellison...................28.44 (26.74)

Zydrunas Ilgauskas.........24.14 (27.86)

Basically, as you can see, where a player is in his second season of extensive playing time is where he is going to be for his career. If there is any movement in the numbers, its usually downward, otherwise its uncanny how stable a player's Eff48 scores remain throughout his career. Thus, what Bogut is putting up now is, in all probablility, about what we can expect.

Trust me, I searched high and low for counterexamples to disprove this thesis, but found little. The only similar player whose career has had any persuasive countervalue at all is Ilgauskas. But even his example isn't really dramatic enough to make me move away from my general conclusion.

There was one player, however, who, initially provided me with some hope. Marcus Camby. He went from essentially producing, in his second season, at the level Bogut is producing now, to his current above average production level (31.80).

But the Camby example is probably an aberration. Early in his career, Camby was a power forward. As soon as Patrick Ewing left, he moved to center. When he did so, his rebounding improved markedly. In the center position, he was able to use his athleticism to outmanuever other centers. For Bogut, the opposite has been true. Since moving to center, he has become a worse rebounder. When he played power forward, he would let his opponent drift outside, as a lot of power forwards like to do, and would then gather in uncontested rebounds. This year, he has had to fight for those rebounds, to his detriment. So, the Camby case probably is not analagous.

I hope I'm wrong. In fact, if events prove me wrong, I will happily eat this whole posting. But history says I probably won't have to.

#: Jermaine O'Neal and Darryl Dawkins both came straight out of high school, so I considered their second season to be the second season in which they averaged substantial minutes of playing time.


At December 13, 2006 at 6:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

he champ, stop looking at the numbers for a minute. didn't you watch the game? for the first time in a long time, bogut looked great. he was pumped, talking trash, he didn't look like a bust, nor a dud. he is inconsistent we all know that. the jury needs to resist targeting the guy until stotts has left the building and a real coach comes in to take over. when kareem finishes with bynum over in l.a., give him a call and tell him we need him for a little one on one. bogut will settle in soon and average 15 12 and 5, he's too smart not to.

At December 13, 2006 at 6:39 AM, Blogger Sky Hook said...

Trust me... I want you to be right, not me. I don't know, though, he just hasn't blossomed in the center position like I thought he would, and now I'm worried he never will. I hope he shoves it right in my face.

At December 13, 2006 at 12:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And what is this real coach going to do for Bogut--have him be a shot blocker, finish his shots at the rim, fight to hold the low post position, have a 15ft jumper, shot his foul shots according to the recommendations of a foul shooting specialist (already happened and instantly ignored by the Smart Bogut). If Bogut is so damned smart, why didn't he use the offseason to work on his obvious deficiencies?
Nelson couldn't get more from Benson than he showed. Mo coach is going to do anything more for Bogut either.

At December 14, 2006 at 2:41 AM, Blogger treego14 said...

These strict numeric analyses for different time periods for guys who played for different teams altogether are interesting and perhaps somewhat helpful in analysis of Bogut, but I feel such analyses are lacking in true ability to judge accurately the player that Andrew Bogut is.

I saw Benson play, and I see Bogut play. Bogut brings a whole new dimension and dynamic to the game of basketball and to his team that Benson could never give to his team. Bogut is hamstrung by any or all of the following it certainly appears: the nagging after-effects of a preseason injury, an offense too wholly dedicated to the likes of Redd and Mo, and Bogut's tendency to exhibit some immaturity (i.e., pouting); Benson was nothing if he wasn't mature and professional in his effort and demeanor.

The Bucks are a downright strange team right now. All 3 of our frountcourt starters are more team-oriented and able to see the court and pass it well than our 2 guards. If our guards had the same court vision and sense to pass the ball that our bigs have, Bogut would be much more able to put up the numbers that would make your spreadsheet analyses look better for Bogut.

Bogut does need to improve his inside game repertoire, however. Too many soft lefty scoop shots that are easily blockable. Time to develop a high-release dominant hand shot in the paint along with a spin move to the hoop.

I think it's safe to say that Bogut is much more dynamic and capable of having a far better career than did Benson despite your numbers cited here. I think this shows that some numbers/stats just seem to fly in the face of what is readily apparent from actually watching games.

That said, I will say that Bogut is underachieving overall this season so far.

At December 14, 2006 at 7:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What if they move Bogut to point and play Bogut, Bell, Redd, Villanueva, Patterson?

Mo can score off the bench and get 8 assists one game a week just the same.

Give me one good reason why Stotts shouldn't try it before Slick Larry Harris comes down to man the bench himself?

I'd be interested to read what you think about the possibility of Billups to MKE, too. Right about now, I'm sick of Michael Redd and his scoring, no D, no win mentality, and I'd love to trade him for Iverson. Phila couldn't do much better, neither, but it'll never happen. Maybe the Dairy Queen loves Redd like he loved Rayray. I love Redd too, I guess I'm just sick of this team.

I hope Harris isn't in full-on ass-covering mode. I'd give him a decade and a half to get things right, who else is going to come in and look so funny in the signing pictures with Lynn Greer and the others? I wish I would've saved those, they made my summer.

At January 28, 2008 at 8:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andrew's recent play has to be worth a new article perhaps...Would be 2rd best center in the East atm

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3 years later... And in this prediction you were wrong. Bogut's game has elevated each year. And with his rebounding, blocking and defensive production I think he's proven as a top-3 center in the East.

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