Andrew Bogut vs. No. 1 Picks since '70

With the help of information found on databasebasketball.com, I calculated the career Eff48 scores for each of the NBA's top draft picks since 1970, and then I ranked them from most productive to least productive. (My results are at the bottom of this post.) I did it because I was curious to find out where Bucks C Andrew Bogut fits amongst his No.1 peers, at least at this point in his career.

Bogut's Eff48 score of 24.42 puts him firmly in the bottom half of the list, 26th out of 37. By historical standards, he is thus far a below average number one pick. His Eff48 is below both the mean score (28.07) and the median score (27.09) recorded by top picks since 1970. Whether he has the talent to work his way into the top half of this list in the next couple of years is an open question as far as I am concerned. (Antlerheads take note: if you go by my list, no team since 1970 has gotten less for their number one picks than the Bucks. How long must we pay for the flip going our way in the Lew Alcindor draft?)

A couple of general comments about the overall list. First, it is by no means a definitive ranking. As you can see, you have Derrick Coleman ahead of James Worthy even though Coleman's attitude made him far less valuable in his prime than Worthy (plus Worthy in his prime played with Kareem and Magic, which arguably could have suppressed his productivity). Second, number one draft picks provide no guarantee of team success. Of the 38 number one picks since 1970, only 6 (Duncan, Robinson, Worthy, Magic, Olajuwon, and Walton) have won championships with the team that drafted them, and of those 6 only 2 have won championships without having another number one pick playing alongside them (Olajuwon and Walton). And only 6 others have even gotten as far as the NBA Finals with the team that drafted them (Collins, Ewing, Sampson, Shaq, Iverson, and Martin).

You may notice that at the moment the lowest ranked number one pick is last year's pick, Andrea Bargnani. I wouldn't classify him as the all-time worst number one pick just yet. I would give him another two years to prove himself. Why? Because I went back and looked at Dirk Nowitzki's numbers in his first year, and they are nearly identical to Bargnani's. Nowitzki's production took off in his second year and then lifted into the realm of superstardom by his third year. I'm not saying Bargnani's will do the same, but Nowitzki is the man many compare him to, so let's see.

Anyway, here is my ranking of every NBA number one pick since 1970 (with Eff48 score):

1. 1979 Magic Johnson (38.02)
2. 1974 Bill Walton (37.53)
3. 1987 David Robinson (37.32)
4. 1992 Shaquille O’Neal (37.29)
5. 1984 Hakeem Olajuwon (36.53)
6. 1970 Bob Lanier (36.23)
7. 1997 Tim Duncan (34.15)
8. 1984 Patrick Ewing (32.76)
9. 2002 Yao Ming (31.40)
10. 1993 Chris Webber (31.13)
11. 1999 Elton Brand (30.52)
12. 1986 Brad Daugherty (30.37)
13. 2003 LeBron James (29.47)
14. 1983 Ralph Sampson (28.88)
15. 1975 David Thompson (28.29)
16. 1990 Derrick Coleman (27.77)
17. 1981 Mark Aguirre (27.10)
18. 2004 Dwight Howard (27.09)
19. 1989 Pervis Ellison (26.74)
20. 1982 James Worthy (26.50)
21. 1980 JB Carroll (26.44)
22. 1988 Danny Manning (26.36)
23. 1978 Mychal Thompson (26.23)
24. 1977 Kent Benson (25.68)
25. 1996 Allen Iverson (24.59)
26. 2005 Andrew Bogut (24.42)
27. 2000 Kenyon Martin (24.40)
28. 1991 Larry Johnson (24.31)
29. 1973 Doug Collins (24.28)
30. 1976 John Lucas (24.00)
31. 1995 Joe Smith (23.40)
32. 1994 Glenn Robinson (23.25)
33. 1971 Austin Carr (20.98)
34. 2002 Kwame Brown (19.90)
35. 1998 Michael Olowakandi (19.11)
36. 2006 Andrea Bargnani (18.26)
37. 1972 LaRue Martin (DNQ – too little PT)

Footnote: Eff48 calculates positive productivity per minute of playing time. The formula = (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals - Missed FGs - Missed FTs - Turnovers / Minutes Played * 48)