Bucks Diary

Friday, February 23, 2007

Bucks should trade Michael Redd



How's that for flamebait? Actually, I'm being serious. I just read a rather compelling (and frankly sobering) article posted on nbadraft.net entitled "The GoldMedalSuperstar Theory" (its a two part article and you can read it here and here). The article was very well researched and forcefully written and argued. Its central conclusion, in a nutshell, is the following: Any team that hopes to win an NBA championship had better have at least one player who projects as a GoldMedalSuperstar, and preferably more than one.

So what the hell's a GoldMedalSuperstar you ask? Without going too far into the article's self-contained terminology (you can look at it yourselves if you are interested), GoldMedalSuperstars are determined by toting the number of All-NBA and MVP votes a player receives over the course of his career. The twenty highest cumulative vote getters under this tabulation are deemed... GoldMedalSuperstars. And here's the really sobering rub. It turns out that nearly 80% of all NBA championships were won by teams who were led by at least one of these elite GoldMedalSuperstars.

And that's not all. Simply to get to an NBA Finals you should have at least one or more of the top 84 all-time vote getters on your roster (or players -- like Dwayne Wade, for instance -- who project into that category over the lifetime of their careers). Without such players on your roster, the historical odds of getting to the mountaintop are miniscule.

Which brings me back to the title of this post. If you buy the article's thesis, and its rather persuasive, then you must conclude that the Bucks will never sniff an NBA title with Michael Redd on their roster. Not because he is useless. Rather because he is not useful enough to justify the amount of salary cap room he eats. Following the GoldMedalSuperstar theory's logic, you have to reserve your max dollar designation for truly special players. And Redd, while good, is not truly special. He's a scorer who could be a component on an NBA championship team (think Andrew Toney, for example) but its highly unlikely you can build an NBA champion around him. He's too one-dimensional. He's almost a flashy role player, in other words.

Now, there are potential holes in the GoldMedalSuperstar theory (for instance, the possibility exists that the votes are circular, in other words, once a player wins a championship he then garners many more MVP and All-NBA votes as a result... I don't know that, I just bring it up as a possible criticism). However, in the case of Michael Redd and the Bucks, I think the argument's logic is fairly ironclad. If you want to see a crown on the Green-and-Red and dance in the middle of Kilbourn anytime soon, it would be wise to remove Mr. Redd's salary from your ledgers and hope and pray that with that space you can attract a rare talent someday soon.

Footnote: Of course, the possibility exists that the Bucks could get Greg Oden or Kevin Durant in the draft. They might be top 84 talents who, in their inexpensive early years, could lead the Bucks back to glory. In that case, Redd's salary would not be a hinderance. But that's really more of a pipe dream.

21 Comments:

At February 23, 2007 at 5:41 AM, Blogger The Bonafied Boy said...

if the bucks can get greg oden, wouldnt it be better to keep michael redd around?

 
At February 23, 2007 at 1:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A very interesting theory, and the Bucks, alas, illustrate it all too well when you consider they traded Abdul-Jabbar to the Lakers for Junior Bridgeman, Brian Winters and others in the mid-70s. In other words we traded a GoldMedalSuperstar and potentially multiple trips to the finals for the nucleus of a fine ensemble team that was just good enough to lose to all those GoldMedal Dr.J and Bird led teams.

You could make a similar argument, although one much more prone to that circular logic flaw, regarding Hall of Fame quarterbacks and Super Bowl wins. A quick look at the last 20 years shows 65% of the NFL champs were led by current or future Hall of Famers: Manning, Brady, Elway, Favre, Aikman, Young and Montana. Throw in Kurt Warner's brief run of Hall of Fame-like play and the number hits 70%. (Uber-defenses at their short-lived peaks account for almost all the rest, e.g. Ravens, Tampa Bay, the LT-led Giants.)

I vote the Packers and Bucks trade away most of their current rosters in a desperate attempt to grab Vince Young and Dwight Howard.

 
At February 23, 2007 at 2:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very good entry.

You seem knowledgeable, come discuss Buck's basketball at:

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=21

 
At February 24, 2007 at 2:42 AM, Blogger Treego said...

Hmmm...we dumped Ray Allen awhile back for mediocre and temporary talent. That didn't help at all.

Michael Redd is not the problem.

His contract is not prohibiting the Bucks from signing very good talent in the NBA draft.

Good players on the roster are not the problem. We need all the good players we can get. We need less of the poor players and non-useful players like Greer, Gadzuric, Markota, etc.

Get as many good players you can get---grab the stars when you can along the way, too, of course.

The Pistons very recently were in consecutive NBA Finals with nary a superstar on their roster.

I do see your point, though, overall. I just think that NBA teams don't have to gut their rosters to get superstar talent. And with that premise in mind, one has to retain good talent to make it that much easier to be championship/deep playoffs contenders once the superstar talent hits the roster.

 
At March 22, 2007 at 12:12 PM, Anonymous david said...

your stupid, unless michael redd goes to the bulls its the worst trade ever... and thats final

 
At March 22, 2007 at 12:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Michael Redd is the worst clutch player i have seen in many years. He has countless numbers of opportunities to hit game winning or game tying shots and he has come up short on all accounts. He shouldnt be traded because the Bucks are horrible and that's where horrible platers belong.

 
At March 22, 2007 at 12:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

you know what "david" the bucks won't even get anywhere near the finals so you cant even say that thats final because the bucks are horrible. As a matter of fact, it just so happens that buck and suck rhyme, and thats final, so put that in your pip and smoke it

 
At March 22, 2007 at 12:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

you know what "david" the bucks won't even get anywhere near the finals so you cant even say that thats final because the bucks are horrible. As a matter of fact, it just so happens that buck and suck rhyme, and thats final, so put that in your pipe and smoke it

 
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At September 8, 2010 at 11:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i dont see the point

 
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