Bucks Diary

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Power forwards are killing the Bucks



After seeing Dwight Howard's near perfect game against the Bucks on Tuesday night, I wanted to find out who have been the most productive players against Milwaukee this year. I found that an overwhelming number of those players play the same position: power forward. In fact, the Association's power forwards are using the Bucks like a statistical cash register, putting up enormous numbers with alarming consistency.

Now, granted, we are currently in the golden age of power forwards. So I wasn't shocked to see power forwards among the more productive players against the Bucks. But the numbers they are putting up are way beyond the expected norm. Way beyond. Power forwards are simply feasting on the Bucks.

Quick Statistical and Historical Primer

Here's a quick primer so you can appreciate the carnage. I judge individual productivity according to Eff48 (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks +Steals -Missed FGs - Missed FTs - Turnovers/ Minutes Played x 48). There are better statistical formulas, I am sure, but this one is the most straightforward and easily understandable. And it's a far better barometer of a player's productive output than traditional statistics like scoring average and rebounding average.

What's a good Eff48 average for a Power Forward?

For Power Forwards, the median Association-wide Eff48 score is around 25 or 26. The leading power forward this season is Minnesota's Kevin Garnett. He has an Eff48 of 36.12 (the second highest overall Eff48 in the NBA. The injured Yao Ming's is highest at 36.57).

For some historical perspective, here's a list of Eff48 averages compiled by some all-time great power forwards: Bob Pettit (38.48), Charles Barkley (36.83), Bob McAdoo (35.37), Jerry Lucas (34.80), Karl Malone (34.76), George McGinnis (31.67), Kevin McHale (31.64), Elvin Hayes (30.08), Dennis Rodman (27.57), Dave Debusschere (27.43).

With that information as reference, you can now appreciate the way the following power forwards are eating the Bucks alive:

Top Power Forward Eff48s vs the Bucks

Elton Brand (1 game):........... 51.83
Pau Gasol (1 game):.............. 49.83
Chris Bosh (2 games):........... 48.79
Carlos Boozer (2 games):....... 43.88
Marcus Camby (1 game):....... 40.87
Shawn Marion (2 games):........39.90
Emeka Okafor (1 game):........ 39.40
Drew Gooden (2 games):........ 39.24
Jermaine O'Neal (2 games)..... 38.85
David Lee (2 games)...............38.61
Troy Murphy (1 game)........... 36.92
Kevin Garnett (2 games)....... 35.06

Unbelievably bad

Twelve power forwards producing Hall-of-Fame numbers against the Bucks this season! And, I only counted those averaging at least 25 minutes per game against the Bucks. So, these aren't statistical aberrations. These guys are consistently and relentlessly pulling down humongous numbers against Milwaukee. Its as if the Bucks are putting up no resistance at all.

The Bucks had better shore up this problem if they expect to turn things around. The numbers they are yielding right now are untenable. In fact, they are so bad, I may have to revisit my opinion in the Oden vs. Durant debate. The Bucks are clearly in need of an inside force.

1 Comments:

At February 8, 2007 at 3:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you use 82games.org production by position, you see that this year's difference between Bucks PFs and opponents' PFs is the same as last year's (using PER as one's metric). This year, however, has not seen the starting PF in more that 25% of the season at that positition. Now Cv would not have held anyone down, but he would have produced more himself than his inadequate subs.

Also this year the C postion has even a greater differential than the PF position and worse than last year's. So yes, the Bucks are weak inside, but it is more than just at the PF position.

 

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