Bucks Diary

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Andy and Charlie: Year Two

Now that both C Andrew Bogut and PF Charlie Villanueva have been shut down for the remainder of the season, I did a statistical analysis of each player's sophomore year productivity. Both had slight upticks in most of their major statistical categories, but neither lept up to the elite status most Bucks fans had hoped for. Perhaps they are both destined to be middle-of-the-road players, or maybe they will blossom under the new leadership of Coach K. Either way, next year is a critical year for the two.

I list each player's 2006-07 statistics in white, and their 2005-06 statistics in green.

Andrew Bogut

Eff48: 24.69 (23.85)
eFG: 55.4 (53.3)
Jumper eFG: 30.7 (30.5)
Inside eFG: 64.3 (59.4)
FTA/FGA: 27.1% (28.1%)
Passer Rating: 4.0 (3.4)
Rebounder Rating: 28.0 (26.2)
Shot Blocker Rating: 2.6 (4.9)
Ballhandler Rating: 10.5 (10.5)
Defensive eFG: 54.8 (48.2)
Reb/48: 12.4 (11.0)
Ast/48: 4.8 (3.9)
Pts/48: 17.2 (15.8)

Strengths: Excellent passer from the high post. Decent position defender; not a shot blocker at all. Has a crafty game down low, but will never be a McHale type in the post because he lacks the athleticism. Handles the ball very well for a big man. Productive, if not dominant rebounder.

Needs Improvement: I think Bogut should take a page from Bill Laimbeer and really work to develop his outside shot. If he could make that shot from the side of the circle consistenly, he could really improve his offensive output. It would open up the passing lanes for his deadly bounce passes, and he could provide himself with drive-by opportunities. He's got a nice release on the thing, but as Jonny Mac has pointed out, he's got some mechanical problems (he fades away on it, despite the fact that its a set shot). And, as I have discussed in the past, he must become a more consistent free thrower. Again, nice release and rotation, bad results. If he could just pick up production points in those two areas he could rise from the mediocre echelon of centers (right now his numbers match the Benoit Benjamins of the world) to the above average (Divac, Laimbeer, Brad Miller... those types).

Charlie Villanueva

Eff48: 23.85 (23.06)
eFG: 50.8 (50.0)
Jumper eFG: 42.1 (42.1)
Inside eFG: 65.5 (60.7)
FTA/FGA: 21.0% (15.7%)
Passer: 1.4 (1.7)
Rebounder: 24.5 (24.2)
Ballhandler: 7.9 (10.0)
Defensive eFG: 54.5 (55.4)
Reb/48: 11.0 (11.1)
Ass/48: 1.8 (1.9)
Pts/48: 23.1 (21.7)

Strengths: Excellent offensive player. Very effective in the post (more so than I think he himself realizes). Has range on his jumper, but isn't as good from the outside as he believes he is. Has a high Eff48 ceiling (possibly in the low 30s).

Needs Improvement: He has to learn to bring it every night. Perhaps his shoulder problem had something to do with his inconsistent production. He started out very well, with an Eff48 of 30.58 for the month of November, but declined from there after getting hurt. He needs to get more of a power forward mindset. He's highly effective down low (65.5%), but he's inclined to want to bomb from the outside, where he's far less effective (42.1%). He is a below average rebounder for his position, and he simply must improve his defense. And it wouldn't hurt to mix in an assist or two every now and again.


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