Bucks Diary's 20 Spins: Volume 11
Another loss, another 20 Spins. If this game is teaching you anything, Bucks fans, it should be this: Brace yourselves for the Big Screw. Although my money pick results (1 or 2) were improved (30% -- exactly the results Frank's math suggested), I still landed the decided majority of my spins below the Bucks rightful 3rd spot (60%). And once again, the most frequent result was the 5th pick (40%).
Are you beginning to understand what I posted earlier? Namely, that for the worst teams, the NBA Lottery is really just a fool's gamble (meaning it has more likely downside than upside).
Say No to Noah
If you notice on the ESPN Lottery Generator, Chad Ford has the Bucks selecting Florida's Joakim Noah if they should land out of the money picks. That is my worst nightmare, and I can't believe they would do it.
If you want a saner reading of the draft prospects, I urge you to read Aran Smith's article he just posted on Nbadraft.net. I am pretty much in agreement with his skeptical assessment of Noah's pro potential, as well as his measured assessment of Hibbert's potential, and glowing assessment of Oden's.
Clarification: This year's Lottery is only a fool's gamble for the two worst teams. For a team like the Bucks, in the third worst spot, it is still a good risk. That is because, for them, the potential benefit of moving up into one of the top two picks far exceeds the potential cost of moving down, even as far as the 6th pick. That is not the case for the two worst teams. They have no upside in the Lottery, only a steep, steep downside.