What's at stake in Cleveland
Since the possibility now exists that the Bucks may fall to the fourth worst record (with a win over Cleveland, a loss by Atlanta, and a loss of a coin flip#), I decided to do a Bucks Diary 20 Spins game as though the Bucks were the Hawks/Suns (the Suns own the pick if it falls out of the top three). The results, if you compare them to my latest real Spin game, are startling.
Now, again, I don't think the Bucks will fall to the fourth spot since the Cavaliers have something to play for, and since LeBron James has promised us all he will not let his team fall into any "booby traps" -- his words, not mine. But, if the Bucks were to set such a booby trap, and the Cavs were to fall into it, and if the Bucks luck continued to run bad and they lost the coin flip for third worst, my Spins show what might happen.
Playing as the Hawks/Suns, nearly all of my results fell at or below the fourth pick (85%), and a scant two fell in the money picks (10%). This is obviously an anamoly, but it does graphically illustrate the potential cost of having fewer pingpong balls.
Here's an interesting side note to the whole thing: playing the game as the Hawks/Suns, I never did better for the Bucks! Six of my 20 Spins as the Hawks/Suns won the lottery for Milwaukee! I've never gotten that kind of great result playing the game as the actual Bucks. Again, a complete anamoly I'm sure... but I'm beginning to wonder what kind of luck I bring to BucksNation.
#Footnote: This business about the flip of the coin determining the third worst spot comes from what I heard Dennis Krause say would happen in the event of a tie when he was doing color commentary on the Bucks Radio Network's broadcast of Saturday's loss to the Bobcats. This doesn't square with what happened last year (I believe they split the pingpong balls in the event of a tie) but I trust Dennis, so I am presuming the NBA changed the rules.