Bucks Diary

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Bucks shutting down the 2s


Coach K spent the entire preseason preaching defense to his Milwaukee Bucks, and it seems to be paying off. The Bucks have really improved their 2 point FG% allowed as compared to the previous three seasons, which to me indicates they are aggressively rotating to help each other take away easy shots. That is a great sign.

In the previous three seasons, the Bucks 2 point FG% allowed has been: .513 (2006-07), .497 (2005-06), and .494 (2004-05). In other words, swiss cheese. In four games this season they are allowing a mere .427. That's terrific improvement.

Of course, at the same time, they are allowing a much higher percentage from 3 point land (.408 vs. .368, .354, and .343). One of two things (or a combination thereof) probably explains this paradox. Either the Bucks are consciously sucking their defense in and daring opponents to launch 3s, or they have simply run up against some better than average 3 point shooters.

Either way, the 3 point numbers should improve. After all, given their poor performance defending 2 point shots, I doubt the Bucks' lower 3 point %s allowed over the previous three seasons were the product of aggressive 3 point defense (unless you believe they were playing a conscious outside-in "dare them to make easier shots" defense). Therefore, it stands to reason that this year's unusually high % allowed ought to regress toward the mean.

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