Bucks Diary

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Can't figure out Mo Williams' numbers


There are a lot of statistical Luddites who read this site and get really mad at me if I point out a set of numbers that don't jibe with their beliefs. I've never understood this position. Numbers are merely evidence from which the truth can be derived -- they are never "the truth" in and of themselves. Its pointless to simply "stop looking at them" as its been suggested I do.

That said, I can't make heads or tails of the negative numbers attached to Bucks point guard Mo Williams by 82games. Their statistics show that the Bucks are much better off with Mo on the bench. The team's defense is far better, and its offense is slightly better, when he's off the court. His PER rating is amongst the worst on the team.

In this case, however, I don't believe the numbers... or I think they represent a time lag. Mo played horribly at the beginning of the season, and that may be what is being reflected. I don't think they reflect the way he is playing at present.

Indeed, if you look at Mo's direct numbers of late, they're just fine. His assists are up, his shots per minute are down, and he's holding his defensive covers to a low eFG%. I think he's doing just fine, and if he keeps it up I think his on/off court numbers should reflect that soon enough.

2 Comments:

At November 27, 2007 at 12:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed, Royal Ivey can't "outdo" him for long, especially with the way he's been playing. Or is there some other substitution pattern I'm missing, where they have another combination of guys that's performing that much better without Mo?

 
At November 27, 2007 at 7:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Williams raised his WinScore (not dramatically unlike your favorite metric) by 52.5% in the last 5 games from the first 5. So yes, his play has improved considerably recently.

 

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