Bucks Diary

Saturday, November 10, 2007

NBA PVOA numbers for 11-9-07

How did your team's offense and defense perform last night compared to the average performance against its opponents?

Below I rank the best offensive and defensive performances based upon PVOA, or "point value over average". You can click on that link to get an explanation of PVOA.

Three things about the PVOA numbers thus far. At this point in the season, each team's established offensive and defensive efficiency numbers aren't quite set in stone, so as we go along PVOA's predictive value should increase. Two, some teams seem to play much better at home than on the road, so I may need to start calculating O and D efficiency numbers accordingly in order to more accurately evaluate performance against average, but right now the home/road sample size is too small to make that worthwhile. Three, its becoming apparent that some NBA teams simply take the night off. How does Phoenix suddenly allow Miami 14 points more than the rest of the NBA has been allowing them in the same number of possessions? Phoenix's defense had been in the top half of the NBA. PVOA performances shouldn't vary that wildly, because the opponent shouldn't matter, you're playing against the average. Yet most every team has one or two games where they inexplicably go way off the grid.

Last night's results

Last night the Bucks played horrible defense. So did Phoenix, even though they won. Detroit was magnificent on both sides of the court. Utah got lucky, as they underperformed against Seattle, both offensively and defensively. Boston's offense is turning into a steamroller. Toronto has a very high octane offense. Charlotte got it going after a woeful couple of games.

Offensive PVOA performances for Friday, Nov 9th

1. Tor +21.21
2. Bos +19.30
3. Hou +15.44
4. SAn +12.06
5. Pho +12.03
6. Det +11.22
7. Cha +7.18
8. Por +6.66
9. Mia +5.96
10. Den +3.75
11. Atl +2.54
12. Phi +1.70
13. LAL +1.03
14. NOR -0.69
15. Ind -0.93
16. Orl -3.20
17. Mil -4.53
18. Uta -5.76
19. NYk -6.18
20. Sea -6.29
21. Mem -6.49
22. Sac -6.67
23. LAC -7.52
24. Min -9.84
25. Cle -12.74
26. Was -16.74

Defensive PVOA performances for Fri, Nov 9th

1. Det -20.10
2. Orl -14.97
3. SAn -11.06
4. Sea -9.49
5. Bos -8.60
6. LAL -6.53
7. Hou -5.74
8. Cha -4.21
9. Cle -3.21
10. Den -2.58
11. NYk -2.24
12. Sac -1.73
13. Por -0.63
14. LAC 0.00
15. Uta +3.97
16. Min +4.06
17. NOR +6.31
18. Tor +6.49
19. Mia +7.77
20. Atl +9.40
21. Was +9.50
22. Mil +10.63
23. Phi +11.16
24. Ind +11.60
25. Pho +14.09
26. Mem +14.78

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