Bucks Diary

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

You ever notice...


You ever notice when I make one assertion, or take a certain position, the opposite result prevails? For example, I spent the summer saying Charlie Bell sucks; He starts the season playing well. So I give him credit for playing well; He promptly goes back to sucking.

The latest example of my reverse curse is Andrew Bogut. In the last two weeks I have said we should explore trading him while his perceived value is still high; In the last two weeks he has played his best basketball of the season.

Actually, though, Bogut's run provides an imperfect example of the curse. After all, I conceded that Bogut mops up against slower, less physical, third tier centers. He always has. And that's what he's been doing in the last two weeks (Pachulia, Milicic).

What I suggested was he wasn't championship timbre. And I still don't think he is.

Right now his productivity numbers place him somewhere in between Luc Longley, on the back end, and Darryl Dawkins and Vlade Divac on the front end. The top end might get it done. The back end, absent Jordan, almost certainly will not.

But, I guess if Bogut can push himself up into the Darryl Dawkins range (Career Eff48: 28.17), then I'll accept that (even though, remember, the talent-laden Sixers of the early 80s never won a championship until they dumped Dawkins and picked up Moses Malone). But I don't think even that is going to happen. History suggests that once a player establishes a certain level of productivity (and Bogut has established himself as about a 24.00 Eff48 producer), the player stays there.

Update

I'm just finishing up my PVOA power rankings, and should have them done in the next few hours. Its a bitch and a half to calculate them, but I think they provide some interesting insights into how teams are actually playing.

I also want to do a rookie progress report today -- hopefully by this afternoon.

Also, before the day is out, I will explain why I haven't been posting for the last several days. Intermeshed therein will be an essay explaining how Kevin McHale is ruining the Minnesota Timberwolves.

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