Bucks Diary

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

The 1980-81 Bucks vs. the 2007-08 Bucks

If you read my last post, you will know that 9 of the 15 players on the Bucks current roster are adding little or nothing to their win total. It doesn't have to be that way.

Below I compare the Win Distribution of the last 60 win team in Bucks history, the 1980-81 Milwaukee Bucks to the Projected Win Distribution of this year's Bucks.

Notice the lack of dead weight on the 80-81 Bucks. Those Bucks had two would-be All-Stars (Marques and Sidney) on the team, but other than that it was made up mostly of productive role players. Yet, those role players were so well chosen that 7 of the 11 Bucks from the 1980-81 campaign were above average win producers for their position.

Of course, to get to 60 wins it helped to have two All-Stars (Marques and Sir Sidney) who were so far above average for their positions that they produced as many wins by themselves (+32) as the entire '07-08 Bucks roster currently projects for the entire season, but my general point still stands. That roster was well constructed. This year's roster is not.

Win Distribution for the 1980-81 Bucks

1. Marques Johnson...+6.59.....17.30 wins
2. Sidney Moncrief...+5.95.....15.36 wins
3. Bob Lanier...+2.67.....7.09 wins
4. Quinn Buckner...+0.77.....6.45 wins
5. Junior Bridgeman...+0.52.....5.60 wins
6. Mickey Johnson...+0.34.....5.09 wins
7. Harvey Catchings...+0.64.....4.29 wins
8. Pat Cummings...-0.64.....1.86 wins
9. Larry Evans...-2.37.....0.45 wins
10. Brian Winters...-2.49.....0.72 wins
11. Len Elmore...-4.10.....-2.66 wins

Total Projected Wins for the 80-81 Bucks: 61.55 wins
Actual Wins for the 80-81 Bucks: 60 wins

Projected Win Distribution for 2007-08 Bucks

1. Michael Redd...+3.88.....15.11 wins
2. Andrew Bogut...+0.50.....6.73 wins
3. Mo Williams...+0.13.....6.56 wins
4. Desmond Mason...-1.49.....2.34 wins
5. Charlie Villanueva...-1.89.....1.34 wins
6. Bobby Simmons...-1.54.....1.65 wins
7. Jake Voskuhl...-0.01.....0.010 wins
8. Royal Ivey...-2.81.....0.008 wins
9. Yi Jianlian...-3.09.....0.000 wins
10. Charlie Bell...-3.70.....-0.59 wins
11. Dan Gadzuric...-2.05.....0.005 wins
12. Michael Ruffin
13. A. Storey
14. David Noel
15. Ramon Sessions

Projected Win Total: 32.5 wins


At December 12, 2007 at 5:32 PM, Blogger blaow85 said...

Nice, thanks for doing all this while there's not much exciting to think about.

I am pleased to see some evidence here and below that Redd might not be the albatross some make him out to be. To have Bogut and Mo in there pretty good too might mean we've not as directionless as it might feel like at times. Can't really judge Yi too much either way yet off 25 games, and sadly it seems like those big contracts for "mid-level" Bobby and Gadz will be the crippler.

Might be a little bit early to write Bobby off too though... What do you think about that? Would you say he's done, still working his way back, not be used properly, or whatever? I would still love to see him get a chance to start for a while.

At December 12, 2007 at 6:12 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Yeah, I'd hold off on Yi, too. He's actually doing better than Durant (or at least he was up till about a week ago). Plus, as I've written, if you move him to SF, which he basically is at this moment, his numbers actually become above average. But the Bucks won't do that.

I'll have more on Gadzuric and Simmons in a minute.

As for Redd, this year he's actually a major bargain. If you figure that the average payroll is around 60 million dollars, and 60 wins is an outstanding season, then anything salary that equates to anything under 1 million a win is a bargain price (as strange as that sounds).


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