Bucks Diary

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Don't let the Bucks record fool you

Last night the GF went to a bachlorette party. She came home at about 2:00 AM just shit faced. I mean, she could not walk... her friend was literally propping her up. The GF likes the occasional sauce, I'll admit that, but last night she must have gone on a rare bender even by her standards. She wasn't even pretending she wasn't drunk!

That's why I'm writing at 5:00 AM on a Sunday. I'm basically on the no-sleep, don't-let-her-roll-onto-her-back, keep-awake-all-night Jimi Hendrix puke watch. Real fun. I've already watched the same stupid ESPN highlights at least six times over.

Thus I need something else to occupy my brain so I can stay awake without going crazy. Guess what I thought of? Did you guess the Milwaukee Bucks! Pig in a poke!

Here's the question that came to mind. The Bucks are currently around a .500 team. Are they lucky to have that many wins, or are they a superpower waiting to explode?

To test this I went to the website run by the California economists I've been writing about, the guys who wrote the book that is my current obsession, The Wages of Wins. They researched the NBA record book from 1991 to the present and came up with a mathematical equation that allowed me to determine with a high degree of accuracy the Milwaukee Bucks expected win total based upon their current offensive and defensive efficiencies.

I punched in the numbers. Yeech. Not good. Based on the Bucks current offensive and defensive efficiencies, the econometric model predicts they will win 28 games.

I guess that's about what I predicted at the beginning of the season, but its still depressing.


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