Bucks Diary

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Redd sagging in December


If you analyze the performance of each Milwaukee Buck in December according to their Win Score and Win Contribution, and then compare it to the same data from November, an interesting picture emerges. For one thing, Michael Redd is no longer playing at a superstar level, and its hurting the Bucks. For another thing, Bobby Simmons should not be allowed on the basketball court. He's killing the Bucks.

Here are the Buck numbers with Win Score and Win Contribution from November are first, and the numbers from December are second, with my comments below. (Win Score is performance over average at your position. 0.00 is the Win Score for the average player at each position. Win Contribution is the same analysis, only it spreads your Win Score out over you percentage of playing time to analyze the contributions to victory you made as compared to the contribution the average NBA player at you position would have made over that same amount of playing time. If you combine all the Win Contributions on the team, a score of 0.000 would be an average team that would be expected to have a .500 record. So any plus Win Contribution means the player is contributing in a winning manner, and vice versa).

Yi Jianlian.....-2.25 (-0.240)..........-0.05 (-0.006)
Michael Redd.....+5.45 (+0.848)..........+0.90 (+0.146)
Mo Williams.....+1.46 (+0.221)..........+0.78 (+0.120)
Andrew Bogut.....+1.55 (+0.202)...........-0.72 (-0.103)
Charlie Villanueva.....-1.43 (-0.119)...........-1.86 (-0.130)
Desmond Mason.....-0.36 (-0.039)..........-0.31 (-0.028)
Bobby Simmons.....-1.67 (-0.130)..........-7.86 (-0.539)
Royal Ivey.....-5.11 (-0.199)..........-1.96 (-0.097)
Charlie Bell.....-3.85 (-0.291)..........-3.92 (-0.340)
Jake Voskuhl.....+0.94 (+0.014)..........-0.71 (-0.035)
Dan Gadzuric.....-1.01 (-0.042)..........-0.98 (-0.013)

November Win Contributions: +0.169
Expected Wins: 6.39
Actual Wins: 7

December Win Contributions: -0.980
Expected Wins: 4.32
Actual Wins: 4

Observations

As bad as Bobby Simmons has played, its actually Michael Redd's decline of 702 Win Contribution points that goes farthest toward explaining the Bucks descent from a playoff team to a bad team... I wondered if he could keep up his November max player level... Redd's gone back down to his normal, slightly above average level, but maybe he'll get it back... Its all about rebounding, shot selection, and getting to the rim... Oh, by the way... My bad: the commenters were right -- Bogut was playing okay last month... Unfortunately, he's struggling this month, down 324 Win Contribution points and playing a below average center... But check out Yi, he's on the rise... And, not to beat a dead horse, but if you project Yi as a small forward, that slightly negative number becomes a large positive... That means wins, but Coach K won't do it!!.... He insists on sticking Simmons out there... Is he a masochist? Does he hate my Milwaukee Bucks?... Simmons is just killing the Bucks, he's awful...Charlie Villanueva isn't getting it done either... Did you notice when the Knicks finally got smart and stuck my boy PF David Lee in there fulltime they started beating good teams?... We have no chance of getting him now... But there are other opportunities out there for the Bucks to improve this summer... I scored some sweet, sweet Bucks gear for Xmas... More on that in a different post.

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