Bucks Diary

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Some things Bogut can do better

After yesterday's loss Bucks C Andrew Bogut was so exasperated at the state of the team he said he was going to go home and do a Google search for ways the team can improve.

Well, there's not much influence he can have on his teammates games, but I have a few simple suggestions for him that could transform him from a slightly above average center to a standout. I not only suggest these things, I then provide mathematical evidence showing the impact they would have on his overall contribution to team success.

All of the simple improvements I list below are things that Bogut did in his college career. Therefore I think they are things he can accomplish, or has shown he is capable of accomplishing. In other words, they are within his so-called "ceiling".

What his numbers look like right now:

WS: +0.28...WC: (+0.038)....2.34 wins....6.06 projected wins

Here's what he can improve:

1. Free Throws: Get back to your college level
The one area that stands out as being a below average area in Andrew's game is free throw attempts per 48 and free throw percentage. An average center gets to the line 5.5 times per 48 and makes .679 percent. Bogut gets to the line only 4.8 times a game and makes a woeful .567 percent of his throws. This I KNOW Bogut can improve on. In his last college season, Bogut got to the line 8.6 times per 48, and made .692 percent -- therefore he is certainly capable of that success rate. Here is the difference in his performance if he merely did what he did in college:

WS: +1.80....WC: (+0.248)....3.41 wins.....9.32 projected wins

2. Rebound a little better
Andrew Bogut is a slightly above average rebounder for a center. But his college numbers suggest he can do better. At the moment he is grabbing about 0.26 rebounds per minute. But in college he grabbed 0.35 per minute. Ervin Johnson grabbed 0.31 per minute at one point in his career, so I think Bogut is capable. It just requires a little extra effort to get to .31... with Bogut's playing time, it averages out to only one extra rebound per game... but the results could be profound. Here's what adding the extra rebounds along with the free throws would do:

WS: +4.55...WC: (+0.633)...5.33 wins....14.68 projected wins

3. Improve your scoring efficiency
Again, Bogut is above average when it comes to scoring efficiency, but his college statistics suggest he's capable of better. Hell, his pro stats tell us he's capable of better than he's doing this year. In college he made .665 percent of his field goal attempts, and they weren't all dunks. So he can do better than the .500 FG% he's shooting now. He can at least split the difference and get to .575... if you add that improvement to the other two then you have an elite level center and an elite level Win Producer:

WS: +6.39...WC: (+0.888)...6.62 wins...18.22 projected wins

I know all those things sound like a bunch of Jimmy Carter advice ("just turn down your thermostat") but I promise you they are all based on sound evidence, they are all within Bogut's potential, and if he does any or all of them he will make himself a much more valuable center.


At January 3, 2008 at 7:25 AM, Anonymous Paul said...

Excellent post, a good positive analysis of where Andrew can improve. I haven't ever statistically analysed it as you did so well here, but i have to say these are the three things I've felt that if he improves can take him to another level. Keep up the good work.


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