Bucks Diary

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Which maximum NBA contracts are good deals?


As I watched the boring Rose Bowl game, I sat and calculated how much HoopsHype.com's "Top 30 NBA Salary" players were making per victory this season (to see how Michael Redd measured up... he's been a bargain).

To determine the number of victories each player has delivered to his respective team, I relied on Professor Berri's calculations, which he did about a week ago. Then I prorated each player's salary to the number of games the player's team had played as of those calculations. From that I determined how much they were making per win.

It wasn't as straightforward as I hoped. First, 3 of the players (Bibby, Webber, and Brand) haven't played this season. I ignored them. No big deal.

However, 3 other players (Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis, and Michael Finley) have delivered less than one victory so far. To give a true assessment of how much they were being paid per victory, I charged them with making more than they are actually being paid.

Here's my thinking. If I am hungry, and I ask you what I can get for $1, and you give me 1/3 of a hamburger, I would assume that if I wanted a full hamburger I would have to pay you $3. By the same logic, if the Spurs have paid Michael Finley $7 million this season and he has delivered just over 1/3 of a victory, I assumed he is charging around $19 million for a full victory.

Then there was the Steve Francis problem. For all the Rockets are paying him, he is actually costing Houston victories. How do you set the rate he is charging per victory when he's actually taking victories away? I came up with some crazy number, but I forget the logic I used. Anyway, he's a huge ripoff and that's what I meant to convey.

By the way, if you read my previous post, I figured out that the market rate for a victory in the NBA is currently about $1.6 million per win (total salary amount/available victories). As you peruse the list, notice how many of the maximum contracts actually pay out more than that rate.

NBA Top 30 contracts: $/win for 2007-08

1. Jason Kidd.................$0.814 mil/win
2. Shawn Marion...........$0.894 mil/win
3. Kevin Garnett...........$0.973 mil/win
4. Yao Ming....................$1.02 mil/win
5. Andrei Kirilenko........$1.13 mil/win
6. Michael Redd.............$1.15 mil/win
7. Paul Pierce.................$1.16 mil/win
8. Baron Davis...............$1.22 mil/win
9. Amare Stoudamire.......$1.33 mil/win
10. Tim Duncan...............$1.38 mil/win
11. Kobe Bryant.............$1.39 mil/win
12. Dirk Nowitzki............$1.49 mil/win
13. Ray Allen..................$1.51 mil/win
14. Antawn Jamison...........$1.71 mil/win
15. Ben Wallace...............$1.79 mil/win
16. Allen Iverson..............$1.89 mil/win
17. zach Randolph..............$2.12 mil/win
18. Lamar Odom................$2.30 mil/win
19. Pau Gasol.....................$2.74 mil/win
20. Shaq O'Neal.................$3.01 mil/win
21. Joe Johnson.................$3.63 mil/win
22. Stephon Marbury............$6.61 mil/win
23. Michael Finley.............$19.39 mil/win
24. Jermaine O'Neal..........$29.24 mil/win
25. Rashard Lewis.............$36.51 mil/win
26. Steve Francis...............$71.63 mil/win

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