Bucks Diary

Monday, January 14, 2008

Which NBA stars are most reliable?


Everybody has an off night once in a while. Except Shawn Marion of the Phoenix Suns.

In an effort to determine which NBA players are the most reliable, I made a list of 53 of the game's biggest names and then tallied the number of "above average" performances each has had this season. I then divided that by the overall number of games the player has participated in this season and that result I called the player's "Above Average Game" percentage. A performance was deemed "above average" if the player's WP48, a production metric that correlates very closely with wins, was above average for his position. (Please click on the link for an explanation of the metric). All information came from the website Winsproduced.com.

The Results

If you want bigtime production, Shawn Marion is almost a sure thing. He has played in all 33 games this season for the Phoenix Suns, and has delivered above average production in 32 of them.

I was stunned to see how inconsistent Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, and Dwayne Wade have been this season. Especially Wade. He is far more likely to have a bad game than a good one. He's down there with the Darko Milicic's of this world.

For some reason, I was also mildly surprised that Kevin Garnett was not up in the 90s. He never seems to have bad games.

On the other hand, I was not a bit surprised to see where Kevin Durant, Mehmet Okur, and Shaq O'Neal came in. Durant is highly inconsistent, Okur is wildly overrated, and Shaq seems to have just lost it.

NBA Stars "Above Average Games" %s
Source: Winsproduced.com

1. Shawn Marion, Pho..................97.2%
2. Marcus Camby, Den................94.1%
3. Dwight Howard, Orl.................89.3%
4. Jason Kidd, NJ.........................88.5%
5. Andrew Bynum, LAL...............88.5%
6. Carlos Boozer, Utah..................86.4%
7. Chris Paul, NO...........................85.7%
8. Mike Miller, Memp...................83.7%
9. LeBron James, Cle....................81.2%
10. Kevin Garnett, Bos.................80.0%
11. Caron Butler, Was...................79.4%
12. Chris Kaman, LAC..................78.7%
13. Steve Nash, Pho....................77.7%
14. Antwan Jamison, Was............77.1%
15. Tyson Chandler, NO................77.1%
16. Amare Stoudamire, Pho...........76.4%
17. Chauncey Billups, Det...............75.0%
18. Kobe Bryant, LAL....................72.2%
19. Allen Iverson, Den...................71.4%
20. Al Jefferson, Mn.......................69.4%
21. Al Horford, Atl..........................68.7%
22. Paul Pierce, Bos........................68.5%
23. Yao Ming, Hou..........................68.4%
24. Josh Howard, Dall.....................67.6%
25. Dirk Nowitzki, Dall...................67.5%
26. Manu Ginobli, SA......................66.7%
27. Pau Gasol, Mem.........................66.6%
28. Brandon Roy, Port.....................66.6%
29. Deron Williams, Uta..................65.7%
30. Chris Bosh, Tor..........................65.6%
31. Andrei Kirilenko, Utah..............64.7%
32. Tim Duncan, SA.........................64.5%
33. Michael Redd, Mil......................63.6%
34. Baron Davis, GS.........................63.1%
35. Carmelo Anthony, Den...............62.8%
36. Ben Wallace, Chi..........................60.6%
37. Vince Carter, NJ..........................58.0%
38. Tracy McGrady, Hou..................56.0%
39. Tony Parker, SA.........................54.8%
40. Mike Conley Jr. Mem..................53.8%
41. Luol Deng, Chi..............................51.7%
42. Ray Allen, Bos..............................50.0%
43. Richard Hamilton, Det.................50.0%
44. Joe Johnson, Atl.........................50.0%
45. TJ Ford, Tor...............................47.0%
46. Jermaine O'Neal, Ind..................40.6%
48. Kevin Durant, Sea........................37.1%
49. Dwayne Wade, Mia......................35.7%
50. Shaq O'Neal, Mia..........................35.7%
51. Darko Milicic, Mem......................34.4%
52. Mehmet Okur, Uta......................26.6%
53. Andrea Bargnani, Tor..................21.2%

8 Comments:

At January 14, 2008 at 3:36 PM, Blogger MC Welk said...

Okur's just been having a bad year, just starting to bounce back. I bet if you pulled his same numbers from last year they'd be up in the 70s.

 
At January 14, 2008 at 4:44 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Let me check.

 
At January 14, 2008 at 4:51 PM, Anonymous spursfan_1 said...

Hi there,

don't forget that some great NBA players such as Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker all had stretches of games that they missed due to injuries. So your calculation should take those missed games into consideration.

Thanks,

SF_1

 
At January 14, 2008 at 4:59 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Spursfan:

Yeah, its just a percentage of the games they actually played in.

 
At January 14, 2008 at 5:03 PM, Blogger TCW said...

mc welk:

Youre right. Last year he had a slightly better rate, 45.3%, but that includes the playoffs, so his RS rate may have been better.

And, I suspect his percentage was much higher three years ago.

Looking at his numbers, they're all fine for a center (and his career AFG is very good) except one. He grabs about 33% fewer rebounds than the average center.

Curiously, three years ago he was an ABOVE average (slightly) rebounder for a center, and then all of a sudden he decided to lower his productivity.

This year he's not rebounding nor is he shooting well.

 
At January 14, 2008 at 5:09 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Spurs Fan:

U have to also remember, all 3 of them are well above average overall, which tells you the magnitude of their good performances.

Marion, though, is not only capable of big numbers, he's also never bad.

Whether one is that much better than the other, I can't really say.

 
At January 15, 2008 at 12:47 AM, Anonymous glenn said...

If only the Bucks had Marcus Camby...

 
At January 15, 2008 at 1:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

WP48 of the average player is .100. Is that what you used or did you mistake WP48 for WinScore/min or player adjusted WinScore (where anything above 0 is better than average, and which equates to W48's 1.00?

 

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