14 should have been 15
Bucks fans, I screwed up. I transposed the numbers for Kent State and UNLV. The pick should have been UNLV. Too much number crunching made me sloppy.
The other game I lost was Arizona. That was one of several razor thin PVOA evaluations where I had to go off the reservation and use outside numbers. But I would have picked Arizona under any circumstance, so I'm not mad at all about that. You can't account for unpredictability, and Arizona is that.
One warning: I never noticed Kansas State was playing in Nebraska. I probably should have considered that a "semi-home" game. Kansas State certainly played like it was. The Wildcats are a great home team and a poor road team, and yesterday they played to their home numbers, which might mean trouble for the Badgers. (I should have known better. My favorite team name of alltime is the 70s classic "The Kansas City-Omaha Kings". Kansas... Nebraska... duh. Screwed the pooch on that too.)
By the way, did you see how horribly I would have done if I had stayed with my original mishmash system? The numbers behind the system were solid, but I had no solid method for level comparison of teams. So I just threw a bunch of methods together and probably ended up with something illogical.