Bucks Diary

Thursday, March 20, 2008

A so-so early debut for my NCAA PVOA formula

So far, I think I only missed on the Kent State game. Of course, that was basically the only "separation" game so far, so that's a huge miss. And my "hits" left something to be desired.

In my defense on that Kent State-UNLV miss, though, UNLV played precisely as I calculated they would, and so did Kent State... in the second half. What the hell was that first half all about? Ten points? That wouldn't be the PVOA for a pee-wee team. And UNLV is far from a "lockdown" defensive team. Far from it. Every single indicator, every single tendency variable, said it would be Kent State. But I didn't account for KSU's nervousness, I guess. So obviously, first time jitters need to be factored in next year. The hell of it is most of the people in my pool probably picked UNLV based solely on their beating Wisconsin last year and/or their slightly superior seeding. So that miss hurts.

As for the rest of the early games, truth be told, my "hits" weren't all that impressive either. Purdue won by much, much more than I ever would have anticipated, so the formula didn't work there (I think I had that game as a toss-up). And Marquette's win should have been easier, I guess, too.

Am I starting to sound like the guy Jim Rome calls "Bracket Guy"? If I am, feel free to step me down.


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