Bucks Diary

Monday, June 23, 2008

2008 NBA Draft Preview: The Most Overrated Prospects

This is the first of a 3 part NBA Draft Preview. Today I list the most overrated prospects; prospects I hope the Bucks avoid at all costs. In the next two days I will have a list of the "Most Solid" picks, and the "Borderline Picks" (no foreign prospects were considered at all in my previews).

Because of the nature of today's list, I limit the names to those who consistently appear as Mock First Round choices on the various draft boards across the Internet.


My methodology is simple. I evaluate each prospect on the basis of his college production and his size and strength. The theory behind this is simple and unoriginal. If a player did not produce in college against the weaker competition, history clearly shows he will not produce in the pros. In fact, on average, you can expect a drop of 1/3rd in a player's statistical production when he moves to the NBA, so if the player was an around average or below average Win Contributor in college... well, you can do simple math. He's likely going to be a bust in the pros.

Win Contribution scored as if he were in the NBA

To assess college production, I used the Win Contribution metric, and treated the player's statistical performanes as though they were produced in an NBA game. Thus, I judge the player's Win Contibution against NBA averages, and stretch the production out over a 48 minute game. If you are unfamiliar with Win Contribution or how to read the statistic,
please take a quick glance at this link.

Along with their season Win Contribution average, I also measured each player's Win Contribution in the ten games played against the best defenses. I used the
Pomeroy Adjusted Defensive Efficiency rankings featured on basketballprospectus.com to determine which were the 10 best. Once again, the thinking is, "How does this prospect do against the best competition?

Without further adieu, here is the list (each prospect has his own individual assessment if you click on his name):

Most Overrated Prospects in the 2008 NBA Draft

OJ Mayo, PG/SG...USC
Anthony Randolph, PF/C... LSU
3. Eric Gordon, SG...Indiana
Russell Westbrook, PG...UCLA
Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG...Arizona
DJ Augustin, PG...Texas
Kosta Koufus, PF/C...Ohio St
Donte Green, SF/PF...Syracuse
Javalle McGee, C/PF...Nevada
DeAndre Jordan, C...Texas A&M
Darrell Arthur, PF/C...Kansas

If your favorite prospect did not appear in today's list, that means I consider him either "Borderline" or a "Safe" pick. Tune in over the next few days to find out which it is. You will be surprised at some of the picks I will dub "Safe". That's all I'm going to write for now.


At June 25, 2008 at 12:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Randolph has a 9'1" standing reach, not 8'11". He's still going to bust.

Augustin has a positive win contribution against 5 of the 10 best defenses, but you mark it as 40% directly underneath, and in your comments say it was only 30%.


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