Bucks Diary

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Could the Heat really be that stupid??

Oh my Lord. The Heat are actually considering drafting OJ Mayo or Jerryd Bayless over Michael Beasley! People, that would be a mistake of biblical proportion! It would make Bowie-over-Jordan look like a reasonable selection. (I'm being serious. People forget that Bowie was actually an excellent Win Contributor -- though not Jordan, obviously. His career just happened to be derailed by injury.)

Mayo and Bayless, by contrast, were not Win Contributors in college. There is no precedent for expecting them to transform into Win Contributors in the pros. I'm not saying they won't be entertaining players, I'm just saying they won't contribute to very many victories. If, in fact, that is still the goal down in Miami (Riley's "scouting trip" puts that into question).

Tomorrow I am going to post a chart featuring last year's lottery choices. In it I will compare each player's production in college to their rookie production. You will see that even the best among them (Horford, Noah, Wright) experienced a 60% decline -- and that's after adjusting for minutes played! And, to repeat, Bayless and Mayo begin their careers in the red... they produced below average NBA numbers against college competition (not to mention both guys will have to play point guard in the pros because each of them has a below average standing reach for an NBA shooting guard).

Meanwhile, Michael Beasley's numbers are lights out, and I cannot find any "red flags" that might suggest his production will not transfer to the NBA in a normal manner (meaning he can expect a decline, but a decline that is only in line with the average and should still leave him way above NBA average). He is the one player in this year's draft whom I think could be a "main cog" in an championship team.

My brother is a Twolves season ticket holder. He may be seeing a substantially improved product in the very near future if Pat Riley is really stupid enough to select Mayo or Bayless.


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