Bucks Diary

Thursday, June 05, 2008

How I almost got the score of Game One right

If you go down a couple of posts, you will notice I predicted the final score of tonight's game would be:

Boston 98
LA 92

I was off by 4 points. Here's how I came up with it, and why it may not necessarily be good news for the Celtics.

I used each team's playoff efficiency numbers at home (for Boston) and on the road (for LA), adjusted for opponent strength using PVOA. Go down a couple of posts and you will find an explanation.

Anyway, that predicted that in 100 possessions, the score would be 107.1-100.3, or something like that. Then I looked at the number of possessions the Celtics have had at home in the playoffs, and the number the Lakers have had on the road in the playoffs, and I split the difference. It worked out to something like 93. After that I just multiplied and got the guesstimate.

Of course it could be that the teams simply arrived at that score, and the PVOA analysis wasn't necessarily accurate. But if it was, it means the numbers are probably playing out pretty close to the playoff standards set, which could mean the Cs will be in for a struggle on the road (read my "Likeliest Outcomes" post for a better discussion).

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