Bucks Diary

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

NBA Draft Preview: 3 Sure Things (but is Beasley the surest of them all?)

Both Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose look destined to be big time Win Contributors. But based on my predraft Win Contribution analysis, and on the physical measurement testing completed at the beginning of the month, Beasley looks like a potential superstar, more so than does Rose.

Now, I have no doubt Rose is going to be a player. But he only emerged as a big Win Contributor at the end of the season. Prior to that he was actaully struggling. By contrast, Beasley was smokin' from Day One, and his overall numbers and his numbers against the best competiton both dwarf Rose's numbers.

Moreover, the battle of the tape measure also goes to Beasley. If player's "effective basketball height" is considered, and Bucks Diary defines "effective basketball height" as the player's standing reach (head height is irrelevant to the game of basketball), then Beasley is an above average sized power forward, because he possesses a standing reach of 8-11'' and the average power forward can reach onl 8-10.5. And if Beasley's bench press of 19 reps is condsidered, Beasley has tremendous strength as well, a vital asset needed to produce at his particular position.

On the other hand, Rose, whom I had once considered a "big" guard in the mold of a Jason Kidd, turned out to be much closer to average size PG size. His standing reach is only 8'2.5, which is just above the average for a point guard of 8'1'', and is actually well below fellow first round prospect Russell Westbrook of UCLA, whom I would have sworn was at least a bit more diminutive than Rose.

All of which, once again, is not to say Rose is going to flop. He won't. His numbers were skyrocketing at the end the season, and I expect his rise to continue unabated when he joins the professional ranks. I'm just saying he may not be quite as special as Beasley will be, and the Bulls should take that into consideration.

To illustrate the point in detail, please click on the names of the players below. You will be linked to each player's "Win Contribution analysis", all of which are similar to the ones I did in the previous NBA Draft previews I posted in the preceding days. Also included is the WC analysis for the third player in this draft whom I consider a "Sure Thing", Kevin Love of UCLA.

Please quickly glance at this link if you aren't familiar with the Win Contribution metric. Its pretty easy to read, and tells you generally what WC is and, more importantly, how to interpret a WC score. Oh also, I need to mention that the "SOS" you see by the first "Win Contribution season average" in each analysis refers to the Strength of the player's college Team's opposition's collective defenses, as determined by Ken Pomeroy on basketballprospectus.com. And the "10 best defenses" each player faced are determined "adjusted defensive efficiency" rankings done also by Pomeroy.

Coming tomorrow or later today: Some final predraft words on whom the Bucks should select, or (hint) what I think they should do with the pick. I may or may not do a mock draft. I'm not sure what that would do for anyone, so i probably won't. but who knows.


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