Bucks Diary

Friday, June 06, 2008

The new odds for the NBA Finals following Game One

Once the Celtics put Game One in the bank, it made the odds I calculated yesterday obsolete. So I recalculated, taking into account the Celtics 1-0 advantage. And, once again, I did one set of calculations using just adjusted playoff efficiency numbers and one set using just regular season efficiency numbers. Please refer to this post for an explanation of my methodology.

Summary of Results

The "Playoff Numbers" calculation still heavily favors the Lakers, but, ironically, the likeliest event to occur is a Celtic victory in seven games. The problem for the Celtics is, that's virtually the only way the "Playoff Numbers" reckon they can win the championship. Thus, the Lakers likelihood of prevailing in some manner is still a robust 63%. The Playoff Numbers tilt so heavily toward the Lakers because the Celtics have played so bad on the road in the playoffs, and the Lakers have played so well at home, that the formula effectively gives the Celtics zero chance of winning any road games. Thus, they must win all 4 of their home games to triumph, whereas the Lakers are still given a fairly good shot at picking off one of their remaining road games.

The "Regular Season Numbers" calculation, on the other hand, leans overwhelmingly toward the Celtics. That's because the Celtics were a great road team during the season, and a great home team as well. The likeliest "concluding" event under this calculation is the Celtics winning in 6 games. But I don't trust the regular season numbers very much, because, even with their win last night, the Celtics still have not shown me that they are the team they were during the regular season.

Last night the Celtics held Kobe down big time, yet still had to fight to win. How long will he stay down? Remember how the Celtics held LeBron down for the first two games in the Cleveland series before he nearly took them down in the next four.


At June 6, 2008 at 8:57 AM, Anonymous UTP said...

Celtics in Game 6 is my prediction. Lakers can only win through some razzmatazz in Game 7. No early series wins this year for them.


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