Preview of my NBA Draft Preview
I'm working my ass off to complete what should be a pretty good preview of this week's NBA draft.
Taking a cue from Erich Doerr's work, I am focusing my analysis on the statistics each prospect produced against the 10 toughest defenses that prospect faced last season (as determined by Ken Pomroy's "adjusted team defensive efficiency" rankings on basketballprospectus.com). I am treating each performance as if it occured in an NBA game last season, and giving each a quantitative value using the "Win Contribution" metric, just as I do for any given NBA game. Using the metric in this way teases out exactly how well each prospect performed when the competition was at its best, thereby allowing us some insight into how well the prospect might perform at the next level.
Once I am done with that, I am going to evaluate each player's physical measurements and physical testing performances against the norm at his projected NBA position (thanks to draftexpress.com recently published averages, the norms have been established). I will then speculate about how those measurements are likely to hinder or help the player's productive capacity at the next level, based on past precedent.
So that's whats coming. I'll try to get it up as fast as I can. Until then, let me say that the first part, the Win Contribution part, is already yielding some interesting results. Here is an early look at what I've found (I'm only halfway through the first round):
1. Based on his performances against the 10 best defenses he faced last season, Michael Beasley has the markings of a superstar. His Win Contribution numbers are stunning. The Bulls may really regret it if they pass on him.
2. Memphis SF Chris Douglas-Roberts is a far better small forward prospect than West Virginia's SF Joe Alexander.
3. Memphis PF Joey Dorsey is one of the five best, or at least "surest" prospects in this draft.
4. If you are looking for a PG, Kansas hero Mario Chalmers is a far safer pick than either UCLA's overrated Russell Westbrook or Texas' DJ Augustin.
5. LSU's Anthony Randolph should not be a first round pick. Not even close. His production was terrible.
6. Among the consensus lottery picks, USC's OJ Mayo is, so far, the most likely bust. His numbers against the best defensive competition are putrid.
7. I owe Stanford's Brooke Lopez a bit of an apology. He was actually OKAY against a very difficult "10 best" schedule. I still don't like big men who aren't rebounders, though.
8. Syracuse's Donte Green kept getting worse and worse as the season progressed, an odd inversion of the normal prospect production chart.
9. The exact opposite occured for Memphis' Derrick Rose. His production skyrocketed as the season went along.
That's it for now, but stay tuned. I'll try to have all the numbers and the evaluations up as soon as possible. Conventional wisdom looks like its going to take its usual beating.