A simple adjustment that would make Bogut near elite
As I was goofing around with Bucks statistics I accidentally discovered something interesting. There's a simple way for Andrew Bogut to raise his Offensive Win Contribution to near elite levels. And its totally within his control.
Looking over Bogut's "Player Stats" page on 82games.com, I noticed that 20% of his shot attempts were jumpers, which is a low percentage, but not low enough considering he made only 28% of them (he got 10% blocked for Gosh Sakes! That's how pitiful his outside shot is.) So, I've established that Bogut is a horrible jump shooter. But you knew that already.
Here's the interesting thing. If Bogut simply stops taking jumpers all together, his productive value to the team would sore. Let me explain.
By my calculations, Bogut took 210 jump shots and made a mere 51 of them. That effort netted the Bucks 102 points but cost them 210 valuable possessions. Bogut's jump shooting, in other words, cost the team 108 Win Score points. That's a huge loss when you consider that jump shooting is not a central part of Bogut's game by any means. In fact, I think he only attempts jumpers because he feels he has to. Well, he doesn't have to, and he should stop.
Because if he stopped, his Offensive Win Contribution to the Bucks would immediately increase from a slightly above average +0.068 to a way above average +0.372. That would theoretically produce 2.2 extra wins for the Bucks and would increase Bogut's Win Value over Average from his current +0.2 wins over average (which makes him a 42-40 player) to a much more robust 2.4 wins over average (which would make him a 58-24 player). That's a big difference. At 0.2, Bogut is serviceable. At +2.4, he is indispensable.
Now, if you factor in the defensive improvement I expect all Bucks to make this season, suddenly our little Andy is an upper echelon NBA center. All by simply giving up his jumper!
Therefore, if I were Scott Skiles I would threaten Bogut with physical harm if I ever caught him taking any shot outside the lane. I'm serious. There's no need for it, and I've demonstrated how it hurts the team.
I'm sending my findings to John Hammond's email. Does anyone have it?