Bucks Diary

Friday, June 27, 2008

A simple adjustment that would make Bogut near elite

As I was goofing around with Bucks statistics I accidentally discovered something interesting. There's a simple way for Andrew Bogut to raise his Offensive Win Contribution to near elite levels. And its totally within his control.

Looking over Bogut's "Player Stats" page on 82games.com, I noticed that 20% of his shot attempts were jumpers, which is a low percentage, but not low enough considering he made only 28% of them (he got 10% blocked for Gosh Sakes! That's how pitiful his outside shot is.) So, I've established that Bogut is a horrible jump shooter. But you knew that already.

Here's the interesting thing. If Bogut simply stops taking jumpers all together, his productive value to the team would sore. Let me explain.

By my calculations, Bogut took 210 jump shots and made a mere 51 of them. That effort netted the Bucks 102 points but cost them 210 valuable possessions. Bogut's jump shooting, in other words, cost the team 108 Win Score points. That's a huge loss when you consider that jump shooting is not a central part of Bogut's game by any means. In fact, I think he only attempts jumpers because he feels he has to. Well, he doesn't have to, and he should stop.

Because if he stopped, his Offensive Win Contribution to the Bucks would immediately increase from a slightly above average +0.068 to a way above average +0.372. That would theoretically produce 2.2 extra wins for the Bucks and would increase Bogut's Win Value over Average from his current +0.2 wins over average (which makes him a 42-40 player) to a much more robust 2.4 wins over average (which would make him a 58-24 player). That's a big difference. At 0.2, Bogut is serviceable. At +2.4, he is indispensable.

Now, if you factor in the defensive improvement I expect all Bucks to make this season, suddenly our little Andy is an upper echelon NBA center. All by simply giving up his jumper!

Therefore, if I were Scott Skiles I would threaten Bogut with physical harm if I ever caught him taking any shot outside the lane. I'm serious. There's no need for it, and I've demonstrated how it hurts the team.

I'm sending my findings to John Hammond's email. Does anyone have it?


At June 28, 2008 at 12:08 AM, Blogger Thiéres said...

{Brazilian fan}

Acredito que um dos responsáveis por essa postura de Bogut era Larry Krystkowiak. Ele era um péssimo treinador.

Espero que Skiles possa mudar isso.

At June 28, 2008 at 12:39 AM, Anonymous Frank said...

According to the zonal shooting data at NBA.com, he took 48 shots outside of 15 feet or so, which implies that 82games' "jumper" category includes a lot of shorter stuff. It doesn't look like he shot a good percentage on the short jumpers either, but I think it's easier to tell him to avoid 18-footers than jumpers in the lane. I do think that he should forget about turnaround jumpers altogether, no matter how close.

And further putting on my Bogut-apologist-hat, I'd say a decent share of Bogut's "real" jumpers seem to come with the shot clock running down. Those are also the shots he's more likely to miss I would presume. So while he really shouldn't be looking to take outside shots--no doubt about that--I don't think it's quite as simple as saying "just don't take any."

Of course, you could also say that a vaguely reliable jump shot makes Bogut a vastly more dangerous player, and that he needs to add that to his game. I'm not sure if he makes that shot more in practice or something, but it won't ever develop if he doesn't shoot it at least a little. And the weird part is that he had a decent mid-range game in college, in addition to making a more respectable share of his free throws. He also likes to drive left off pump fakes, and if he's never going to shoot a jumper that is tougher to do. Does even shooting a low percentage from mid-range open up driving opportunities for him? You could argue it shouldn't if defenders were smart, but I'm not sure they are.

Also, a basic question about winscore--why does a missed shot "use" a possession if it's rebounded by the offensive team 30% of the time?

At June 28, 2008 at 9:44 AM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

I'm with Frank on this. From watching the games, Bogut took few "jumpers" but he needs to take more of them to keep defenses honest and open up his post game.

If you want to figure out how Bogut becomes and all-star with one simple actiion he can control, it comes back to free-throw shooting. If Bogut could make himself an 80% FT shooter, even if it meant doing the Ricky Barry underhand, it would make him a massively more effective player and most likely a 20/10 guy.

At June 30, 2008 at 12:47 AM, Anonymous Seattle Bucks said...

Bogut will never be Shaq-type dominate center, but this year I look for him to up his free throw percentage to 70% and start hitting free-throw-line jumpers. If he can do this, he can be a Robert Parrish-type center for a long time.

I think he has been loathe to take jumpers because of his frustration with Mo and Redd dribbling in a circle and then jack up jumpers. But if a 15 foot jumper is part of the actual offense, I think he will start to take them with more confidence.

Also, I think that this year's summer program with the Bogut-whisperer will be all about free throw shooting. So hopefully, the Bucks will see the same improvement they saw in his shot blocking ability.

At November 17, 2009 at 5:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is rather interesting for me to read that article. Thanx for it. I like such topics and everything connected to them. I definitely want to read more soon.

At January 21, 2010 at 9:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You know what, use GSM jammer to disable all spy transmitters in your room or at work.


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