Timberwolves on the right side of this trade
Minnesota Timberwolves fans are understandably apprehensive about yet another draft day swap of players, having been burned twice before by the same maneuver.
But this time it appears Minnesota is clearly on the right side of the trade and should be the long term winner in the deal.
I've done a Win Score analysis of the 3 deals in question: Marbury for Allen, Foye for Roy, and Love for Mayo. In the previous two deals, the Timberwolves ended up trading away the more productive collegiate player. In this deal, they traded for him.
As you can see from the chart, Ray Allen's college Win Score was much better than Stephon Marbury's, Brandon Roy's was much better than Randy Foye's, and Kevin Love's is much better than OJ Mayo's. Therefore one could project that the player's the Timberwolves gave up in the previous deals would be better professional players than the players they received in return. And that has been the case.
But that's not the situation this time. Kevin Love projects as the far superior professional player. His collegiate Win Score marks him as a potentially large Win Contributor, whereas OJ Mayo's collegiate Win Score marks him as a potential bust.
I've started a data base of past professional players, comparing their final college Win Score to their professional Win Score in their rookie season and over the course of their careers. So far only one player in the 45 I have examined has exceeded his college Win Score in his rookie season (that was Michael Jordan). And only 4 players have exceeded their college Win Score over the course of their NBA careers. Unless my database is so far full of aberrations, that doesn't bode well for Mayo, whose college Win Score is borderline average for the mix of positions he will probably be asked to play in the NBA.
In my database so far, the average NBA rookie puts up a Win Score equal to 59% of his collegiate average, with the median being 58.3%. After their rookie seasons, the players all seem to improve substantially, with the average dropoff from their college numbers improving over the course of their career to about 76.4%, with the median being 77.4%. Again, however, few actually improve on their college numbers, as I stated above.
So, while its far from a certainty that Kevin Love will have the superior NBA career compared to OJ Mayo, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of it. (And I didn't even discuss Mike Miller, who is already an excellent Win Contributor.) So I say this time the advantage in the draft day swap goes clearly to "Sota".
posted by Ty Will @ Monday, June 30, 2008
4 Comments:
I'm a Wolves fan and I'm glad to see this article. I think Kevin Love looks sweet and I'm pumped!
Hi. Stumbled into your blog for the first time and i was somewhat fascinated. Maybe it's just my basic mishandling of web stuff but I failed to find a way to contact you.
Is there an E-mail that i can write to, i'm interested in your take on something.
With kind regards, Palamida.
Hi !.
might , probably very interested to know how one can manage to receive high yields .
There is no initial capital needed You may commense to receive yields with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.
AimTrust is what you need
The company represents an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.
Its head office is in Panama with structures around the world.
Do you want to become really rich in short time?
That`s your chance That`s what you wish in the long run!
I feel good, I started to get real money with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. If it gets down to select a proper partner who uses your funds in a right way - that`s AimTrust!.
I take now up to 2G every day, and my first investment was 500 dollars only!
It`s easy to start , just click this link http://difucufyg.ibnsites.com/tygobymu.html
and lucky you`re! Let`s take our chance together to become rich
Good day !.
You may , perhaps very interested to know how one can reach 2000 per day of income .
There is no initial capital needed You may start to receive yields with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.
AimTrust is what you thought of all the time
The company represents an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.
Its head office is in Panama with structures everywhere: In USA, Canada, Cyprus.
Do you want to become really rich in short time?
That`s your chance That`s what you really need!
I feel good, I began to take up real money with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. If it gets down to select a correct companion utilizes your funds in a right way - that`s AimTrust!.
I earn US$2,000 per day, and my first investment was 500 dollars only!
It`s easy to start , just click this link http://ubekazoki.freewaywebhost.com/paxaxet.html
and go! Let`s take our chance together to get rid of nastiness of the life
Post a Comment
<< Home