Bucks Diary

Monday, June 30, 2008

Timberwolves on the right side of this trade


Minnesota Timberwolves fans are understandably apprehensive about yet another draft day swap of players, having been burned twice before by the same maneuver.

But this time it appears Minnesota is clearly on the right side of the trade and should be the long term winner in the deal.

I've done a Win Score analysis of the 3 deals in question: Marbury for Allen, Foye for Roy, and Love for Mayo. In the previous two deals, the Timberwolves ended up trading away the more productive collegiate player. In this deal, they traded for him.


As you can see from the chart, Ray Allen's college Win Score was much better than Stephon Marbury's, Brandon Roy's was much better than Randy Foye's, and Kevin Love's is much better than OJ Mayo's. Therefore one could project that the player's the Timberwolves gave up in the previous deals would be better professional players than the players they received in return. And that has been the case.

But that's not the situation this time. Kevin Love projects as the far superior professional player. His collegiate Win Score marks him as a potentially large Win Contributor, whereas OJ Mayo's collegiate Win Score marks him as a potential bust.

I've started a data base of past professional players, comparing their final college Win Score to their professional Win Score in their rookie season and over the course of their careers. So far only one player in the 45 I have examined has exceeded his college Win Score in his rookie season (that was Michael Jordan). And only 4 players have exceeded their college Win Score over the course of their NBA careers. Unless my database is so far full of aberrations, that doesn't bode well for Mayo, whose college Win Score is borderline average for the mix of positions he will probably be asked to play in the NBA.

In my database so far, the average NBA rookie puts up a Win Score equal to 59% of his collegiate average, with the median being 58.3%. After their rookie seasons, the players all seem to improve substantially, with the average dropoff from their college numbers improving over the course of their career to about 76.4%, with the median being 77.4%. Again, however, few actually improve on their college numbers, as I stated above.

So, while its far from a certainty that Kevin Love will have the superior NBA career compared to OJ Mayo, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of it. (And I didn't even discuss Mike Miller, who is already an excellent Win Contributor.) So I say this time the advantage in the draft day swap goes clearly to "Sota".

5 Comments:

At July 1, 2008 at 1:44 AM, Blogger Frank said...

I'm a Wolves fan and I'm glad to see this article. I think Kevin Love looks sweet and I'm pumped!

 
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