Bucks Diary

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Believe it or not, Bogut will probably be underpaid


How much of a daze have I been in with my whole GF situation (see last post)?? I just thought -- I never commented on the Bogut extension! The whole world's been commenting on it (including the dude at the gas station I frequent), and Bucks Diary has not. Let's correct that situation.

First off, as far as I can tell, most of BucksNation thinks the Bucks are dupes. They think Bogut is wildly overpaid. I disagree. In fact, by my fair market calculations, he will probably end up being underpaid over the life of the agreement. Let me explain.

A couple of posts ago I figured out that next season's market price per win produced will be $1.8 million (this represents total NBA salary outlay divided by total wins available next season). If you look at Bogut's Win Production last season, its around 5.8 wins. If you figure he will do at least that well next season, and his upward sloping production throughout his career suggest he will, then next season he will already be underpaid.

Bogut is scheduled to make $10 million next season. If he produces 5.8 wins, and I project he should produce 6.5 to 7 wins, then a fair market price for his services would be $10.44 million. And, given the expected rise of around 8% per annum in the NBA Salary Outlay, if Bogut merely continues to produce at last season's numbers into the foreseeable future, the Bucks will continue to get a bargain until the last two years of his agreement.

And indeed, over the life of the agreement, assuming Bogut's development stunts right at 5.8 wins (and, again, he's much more likely to improve on those numbers) and assuming the NBA Salary Outlay increase per annum continues to be 8%, then, at the end of Bogut's contract, the Bucks will have "underpaid" him by approximately $510,000. Good deal for the Green and Red.

10 Comments:

At July 15, 2008 at 6:09 PM, Blogger Erick said...

Good to have you back. I'm a Magic fan that likes to read your stuff, and I was getting used to seeing you post every day. Thanks again.

 
At July 15, 2008 at 7:37 PM, Blogger TCW said...

No problem. I love writing for hardcore NBA fans like yourself. Your comments are really appreciated.

 
At July 16, 2008 at 11:31 AM, Anonymous paul said...

Just a quick question, where did you get that Bogut is due to make $10m next season? I could be completely wrong, but isn't he due to make around $6.3m next season as the final year of his rookie deal, with the $12m per extension kicking in the season after that?
Agreed with the previous commenter by the way, good to have you back. I also agree that this was a good deal for the Bucks, nice to lock up a good young player who actually wants to play in Milwaukee.

 
At July 16, 2008 at 8:46 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Hoops Hype salary page. Is that wrong?

 
At July 17, 2008 at 12:11 AM, Anonymous paul said...

I'm not sure, but my understanding of the deal was that it is 5 years $60m guaranteed at a flat $12m per, i.e. not ascending or descending over the contract period.
And also that it doesn't kick in until after next season which is the final season of his rookie deal (team option) at around $6.3m.

Like I said I could be wrong, but that's my understanding of it.

 
At July 17, 2008 at 12:12 AM, Anonymous paul said...

Sorry just to add my previous comment obviously doesn't include the incentives which could take it up to $72.5m if all of them are met, I only included the guaranteed money.

 
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