Believe it or not, Bogut will probably be underpaid

How much of a daze have I been in with my whole GF situation (see last post)?? I just thought -- I never commented on the Bogut extension! The whole world's been commenting on it (including the dude at the gas station I frequent), and Bucks Diary has not. Let's correct that situation.

First off, as far as I can tell, most of BucksNation thinks the Bucks are dupes. They think Bogut is wildly overpaid. I disagree. In fact, by my fair market calculations, he will probably end up being underpaid over the life of the agreement. Let me explain.

A couple of posts ago I figured out that next season's market price per win produced will be $1.8 million (this represents total NBA salary outlay divided by total wins available next season). If you look at Bogut's Win Production last season, its around 5.8 wins. If you figure he will do at least that well next season, and his upward sloping production throughout his career suggest he will, then next season he will already be underpaid.

Bogut is scheduled to make $10 million next season. If he produces 5.8 wins, and I project he should produce 6.5 to 7 wins, then a fair market price for his services would be $10.44 million. And, given the expected rise of around 8% per annum in the NBA Salary Outlay, if Bogut merely continues to produce at last season's numbers into the foreseeable future, the Bucks will continue to get a bargain until the last two years of his agreement.

And indeed, over the life of the agreement, assuming Bogut's development stunts right at 5.8 wins (and, again, he's much more likely to improve on those numbers) and assuming the NBA Salary Outlay increase per annum continues to be 8%, then, at the end of Bogut's contract, the Bucks will have "underpaid" him by approximately $510,000. Good deal for the Green and Red.