Bucks Diary

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Summer League Report: Beasley, Chalmers look great; Rose doesn't


This Summer League season I'm going to be following with particular interest on this blog the various prospects I analyzed and commented upon in the runup to the NBA Draft, just to see how my analysis holds.

I know, its just Summer League. But having followed last year's Summer League rather closely (because of Yi), a lot of the tendencies that rookies displayed there carried over to their NBA seasons (when you link, surf down to "Summer League Specials").

If that is the case, the Heat look like they just may have the upper hand in this year's draft. Michael Beasley and fellow rookie PG Mario Chalmers both had impressive debuts for Miami. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls top draft pick PG Derrick Rose did not.

By Win Score per 48 adjusted for positional average (hereafter simply "Win Score"), Michael Beasley recorded a +5.4, and if we project that onto an NBA 48 minute game his Win Contribution would have been an impressive +0.533. Not bad for starters. And, if he was checking Joakim Noah most of the game, as it appears, his defensive Win Contribution would be pretty nice as well. Noah (normally a very productive player) was held in check, finishing with a Win Score of -5.9 and a Win Contribution of -0.639.

However, knowing what a flake Noah is, I am not going to read too much into Beasley's defensive prowess just yet.

Meanwhile, the Battle of the Point Guards went decisively to the underdog, second round choice Mario Chalmers of Kansas. As you will recall, I was a huge fan of Chalmers going into the draft. I felt he was the number two point guard after Rose, and he kind of showed good signs in his debut.

Chalmers recorded a Win Score of +1.5, and had a projected Win Contribution of an admirable +0.159. Defense was where he shown, however. He held Rose to an atrocius Win Score of -11.1, which projects into a Win Contribution of -1.318. All in all, nice start for Chalmers.

Rose, on the other hand, will square things away I'm sure. He just has to find a way to cut down on those turnovers, though... 5 in 28 minutes of action is way too many. That's more than double the average for NBA point guards. Bulls fans don't want to see that become a trend.

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