Bucks Diary

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Win Profile of the 2007-08 New Jersey Nets

Today's Win Profile is of the 34-48 New Jersey Nets. This time our "Win Totals" were quite accurate. With 33.8 calculated wins produced, we nearly hit the Nets win total on the head. Again, its not that big a deal if the numbers are dead on or off by a bit, they're just as valid either way, but its still much more satisfying to be closer to the mark.

Click here to see the New Jersey Nets Win Chart

Observations about the Nets

1. The Nets cannot continue to give substantial minutes to Jason Collins at center. He is hideous on the offensive end, where he absolutely bleeds wins.

2. As you can see Bucks fans, according to my calculations, Richard Jefferson was severly below average last season, both on offense and defense. That is despite his scoring totals, which I believe represented a career best. As I stated elsewhere, his peripheral numbers have taken a sharp decline.

3. I guess Vince Carter was a lot more productive than I would have thought. He was the leader of the Nets in terms of Wins Produced.

4. Devin Harris looks like a substantial step down from Jason Kidd. Harris is just an average point guard. Kidd, on the other hand, was a big win producer, albeit a win producer on the decline. The player in the Kidd trade who might have a surprisingly positive impact for the Nets is center Desagna Diop. He played well at a position where the Nets clearly struggled.

5. Before Diop, the Nets were simply getting killed at the center position. The trio of Nenad Kristic, Jason Collins, and Jamaal Magliore were just awful.

6. With a Personal Won-Loss Record of negative 22 wins and 104 losses, Kristic has put himself firmly in the running for the NBA's worst player.

Administrative Note: The Statistic I used to call "If he were the whole team" I now call the player's "Personal Won-Loss Record". I borrowed the more succinct name from a similar statistic I found in Dean Oliver's book "Basketball on Paper". I think Oliver calculates his "Personal Won-Loss Record" according to the offensive and defensive efficiency marks the team achieved with the player on the court. Mine, on the other hand, is a calculation of the number of wins produced by the player above or below the average number of wins you would expect a player to produce in the same number of minutes divided by the player's overall percentage of playing time plus 41. So they're different statisitcs, but the concept is pretty much the same.


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