Bucks Diary

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

2007-08 Win Profiles for every NBA team

I've finally finished a project that took me over five months and I estimate over 5,000 calculations. I have finished my "Win Profiles" for every NBA team.

My profiles purport to designate credit for wins to each player according to their statistical production and the statistical production of the players they guarded, using Professor David Berri's "Win Score" efficiency metric.

For each player's statistical production (his offensive stats), I relied on the outstanding website basketball-reference.com. For each player's opponents' statistical production (his defensive stats), I relied on the absolutely indispensable website 82games.com, particularly their "Opponent Counterpart 48 minute production" statistics.

Sidenote: Most all of my work is, in one way or another, derived from the outstanding research done by the Professor of Hoopology, David Berri. His work can be found in the book "The Wages of Wins", which I encourage any NBA fan to pick up and read. Its the Moneyball of basketball. (Packer Backers will enjoy the NFL breakdowns as well). I must note, however, that the concept of "Defensive" Win Score is my own attempt to measure defensive performance, and should not be read to be a direct part of Professor Berri's work or endorsed by him, though he is aware of it. That said, the concept, I believe, is sound. And, while it does have a few necessary fictions (it double counts certains statistics and its wholly reliant on the observations made by those who compile statistics for 82games), I think it is backed up by sound logic and statistical outcomes. My Win Profiles, which obviously incorporate Defensive Win Score, proved 94.7% accurate, and I'll lay out the logical case in chief in another post... not today. (For now let me say this: imagine if one team were banned from crossing half court to the defensive end. Wouldn't that team necessarily have to play more efficiently on the offensive end -- in other words record Win Scores even further above the NBA average -- to make up for that defensive handicap? If you believe they would, then defensive Win Score exists.) Anyway, you are free to take or leave defensive Win Score as a measurement of player value. I put it out there purely for reader entertainment.

NBA Win Profiles
(click on the team to view its Win Profile)

Atlantic Division

Central Division

Southeast Division

Northwest Division

Pacific Division

Southwest Division


At October 8, 2008 at 11:06 AM, Anonymous Mountain said...

Interesting to see counterpart defense translated into wins. Of course it isn't all of defense but it is a big part of it ignore by most metrics. I'll be reviewing the data more with time. Thanks for sharing your research. I mentioned it here


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