Bucks Diary

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Sorry, Charlie (I'm not buyin' it)

Charlie Villanueva is telling everyone who will listen that last year was just an aberration. With Yi Jianlian gone, Villanueva is now "clear-minded" (he says). He promises things this season will be "different". I don't believe him. I think he will be the exact same defensively challenged, offensively inefficient player he has been throughout his career.

I went back and did a Win Profile of Villanueva's entire career (Click here to see it). According to my numbers, last season wasn't an aberration at all for the Bucks power forward. In fact, Villanueva's offensive and defensive numbers from last season are nearly identical to the numbers he produced in each of his first two seasons.

By my calculations, in each of the three seasons he has played in the NBA, Villanueva has produced wins for his teams at a pace of around 0.048 per 48 minutes (well below the NBA average of 0.100 wins per 48). Ironically, as the chart shows, for a player who has a reputation for being inconsistent, Villanueva has been remarkably consistent. Unfortunately for the Bucks, he's been consistently mediocre. In fact, in all three seasons, his "Personal Win-Loss Record" (which essentially measures what the team's record would be if every player produced as Villanueva produced) has been exactly 21-61. I guess "mediocre" might be stretching the truth. Crappy would be a better way to describe his production thus far.

So, based on that track record, Villanueva can go on all he wants about how "this is his year"... I'm not buying it. The evidence indicates he's peaked at a lower than optimal production level, and isn't likely to go up. Consequently, I think the team will continue to have a huge production gap at the power forward position. A gap that I believe should have been filled -- but wasn't -- last summer.

Update: Its taken me five months, but I have almost completed Win Profiles for every NBA team. I only have the Miami Heat left (but they have 22 players on their roster who played at least 100 minutes!). I plan to post the entire NBA at once... sometime next week I think. They're pretty interesting. Its unbelievable how many foreign players are amongst the worst Win Producers on my list, starting with Darko Milicic, along with a host of carbon copy foreign shooting guards. It may be time for the NBA GM's to get over their foreign fetish.


At September 21, 2008 at 3:17 PM, Blogger ZeppelinPage33 said...

I really wanted Richard Hendri, CDR or someone like that in the draft, we had a chance to get Hendrix but we took the fresh prince, not such a bad choice, but I would of rather have gone with Hendrix. He's someone who lives to rebound, those are the kind of guys I love.

At September 22, 2008 at 5:17 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Me too Zepp. And there were several other guys who fit that bill in last summer's draft. None of them had the last name Alexander.

At September 23, 2008 at 9:05 AM, Anonymous Robert Greenfield said...

I will say players usually break out in the 3rd year, which would've been last year for Charlie V. Yi obviously changed things. I don't think he's capable of a lot more than his 12/6 career numbers, but I think 15/8 is possible with the same amount of minutes.


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