Bucks Diary

Friday, October 24, 2008

Bucks playing like a 23 win team

This is a quick post from the road regarding last night's Bucks vs. Bulls exhibition.

First of all, here are the "clean" Point Value over Average numbers for the Bucks from last night:

Bucks Offense: -5.3 points scored
Bucks Defense: +8.0 points allowed
Bucks PVOA: -13.3 points

PVOA, or Point Value over Average measures the Bucks offensive and defensive performance "per possession" against the "per possession" performance of the other teams who have played the Bulls in the exhibition season.  The results are not good for the Green and Red faithful.  The Bucks offense was a -5.3 points, and its defense was a +8.0 points.  That means that in the same number of possessions the Bulls previous opponents scored 5.3 more points and allowed 8.0 less than the Bucks did last night.

In theory, you can take the Bucks PVOA averages for the preseason (Off: -2.5; Def: +11.4), plug them into the efficiency win prediction model, and then project the Bucks record for the season (this is the preseason, obviously, so the results shouldn't cause any panic... yet).  

If you did that, you would come up with a Bucks winning percentage of 0.282, which projects to an 82 game record of approximately 23-59... worse than last year. 

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