Bucks Diary

Friday, October 24, 2008

Bucks "Total Win Contribution" Boxscore vs. Twolves

I have completed the Total Win Contribution Boxscore from last night's game. Total Win Contribution is a numerical expression of the impact each player's statistical output, and the statistical output of the opponents the player was assigned to guard, had on the Bucks chances for victory. As always, +0.000 represents the contribution of an average NBA player at the player's position-- a 41-41 player in other words.

Here's what the Boxscore says about each of the participating Milwaukee Bucks:

1. Richard Jefferson continues to struggle mightily on offense, but his defense has begun to come around.

2. Charlie Villanueva continues his maddening pattern of being brilliant one night and pure garbage the next.

3. Dan Gadzuric had an outstanding game offensively. The problem is, he got Hannibal Lectered by Al Jefferson and Kevin Love on the other end, and thus his overall impact on the game ended up being a net negative.

4. Redd kind of half-assed the entire game, and his TWC reflects that.

5. Ridnour's a scrappy ballplayer, but last night his defense wasn't as good as it has been. I'm beginning to like him, though... his attitude seems great.

6. Joe Alexander cannot produce at all on the offensive end. He just keeps having bad game after bad game. But his athleticism, I think, is paying off on defense, and that is almost allowing him to keep his head above water. Under Professor Berri's system, he would register as complete garbage. By adding the "defensive" component, we can see that his contribution to the Bucks is usually a bit closer to average than it seems... which is promising.

7. Elson had a lesser version of Gadzuric's night. Again, I think this affirms my model. The two Bucks centers, who together couldn't score on my Grandma, had big nights against Al Jefferson. Under the Berri Model, Jefferson is a complete stud. And, indeed, on offense he is a stud. But he has to pay the piper for his matador defense. If you remember in my Win Profiles, I had him producing many fewer wins than the original Berri Win Score model would suggest, because I thought his defense undermined his other contributions, and tonight seemed to affirm my belief

8. Charlie Bell is back to doing his Charlie Bell thing. And that's not all bad. Sure, his offense left town about two years ago, but his defense is forever scrappy and usually helpful.

9. Luc Moute is becoming a straight up stud. He is simply a basketball playing Jesse. Last night he showed he could handle a combination of small and power forward role. That's after brilliantly manning the shooting guard spot in the Warrior series. What a player. He is a shutdown defender at 3 positions, possibly 4, and he is a "do the little things that help us win" offensive player. He's becoming a Bucksdiary favorite for sure.

10. Tyronn Lue is just begging to be passed up on the depth chart by Ramon Sessions, but Sessions just won't do it. Last night Lue was awful on both ends, but it wont matter because Sessions was even worse.

11. Malik Allen is just workmanlike. He is what he is. A lunch pail Buck. And if the Bucks had better primary talent, he would probably be a valuable part of a successful team. They don't and so he isn't.

12. The Timberwolves announcers were wondering what happened to that phenom we saw late last season? So was I. Wasn't he named Ramon Sessions or something? Wasn't he phenomenally productive at the end of last season. Oh, yeah there he is on the end of the bench. Sessions didn't help his case for getting off the bench by getting lit up by in the final nine minutes, and turning the ball over incessantly on offense. A brutal showing for Session in what has been an overall brutal training camp for him. He will be lucky to work his way into the rotation before Easter.


At October 25, 2008 at 11:58 PM, Blogger Joe said...

Longtime Oregon Sonic fan here. I told you you were getting a good Point guard when you got Luke two months ago in a comment. I am glad that you are beginning to appreciate him a bit. He's not Steve Nash, but he is a great passer, he moves well, I think he can be an acceptable defender and he is a very humble, hard working Gym Rat. He can shoot better than he's shown. He's had 4 coaches in 5 seasons. His best performances came with Nate McMillan coaching him, and Scotty is very similar in nature and coaching style.


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