Bucks Diary

Thursday, October 23, 2008

In Game Post: Twolves vs. Bucks


I'm watching the Bucks play the Timberwolves, and here are my random thoughts which I will be updating throughout the game...

Is Love going to make me look bad?

If there's one guy I've stuck my neck out for, its been Kevin Love. I virtually guaranteed he would be a productive professional... risking and getting ridicule for it. And I labeled the Love-for-Mayo deal a win for the Twolves.

Well, so far not so good. Actually, let me get specific. Mayo is currently putting up a Win Score per 48 of 6.4, which would be average for a shooting guard, but well above where his college numbers would have him. Love is putting up a 7.6, which is way below average for a power forward, and way, way below where his college numbers would project. Minnesota babblers already have him down as a bust.

So will Love fall into the Kevin Durant/Adam Morrison category... a phenomenal college producer who mysteriously becomes unproductive in the pros?

I say not so fast. Early on in the exhibition season, he was right where I projected him... a 13.2 Win Score. Its just that in the last couple of games he's been awful shooting the ball.

That may bring into play the issue of conditioning (1 for 10 indicates dead legs). I'm certainly not bailing out on him yet, nor am I sold on OJ Mayo.

Thank you Al Jefferson

One of the players who was severely downgraded by my concept of "Defensive Win Score" was Al Jefferson, center for the Timberwolves. Under Professor Berri's straight Win Score, he is a huge Win Producer. Under my Offense/Defense concept of Win Score, he's just slightly above average.

Tonight, he's giving evidence that my reading is correct. He's lighting it up on offense, but he's giving it all back to two Bucks stiffs on defense.

Defense matters. As I type this, Al Jefferson has 11 points on 5-5 shooting, but he's also allowed a combined 12 points and 10 rebounds on 6 of 7 shooting to Bucks stiffs Dan Gadzuric and Fransisco Elson. And the Bucks are leading 34-27.

When you can make Dan Gadzuric into "former Piston center James Edwards" as Minnesota's color commentator said, you have to be penalized in some way. That's what my model does, and I think its right to do so.

Look at Redd's consumption

Did you read my "The Michael Redd Paradox"? Well, as I type this, Michael Redd is using possessions at a rate of 26.9 per 48 minutes, and he has produced a measly 0.4 pts/poss. Less is more Mike. Less is more!

What a difference!

This looks like a whole different Bucks team than the one that debuted against the Wolves in LaCrosse. The Bucks defense has looked aggressive and active, and the offense is actually clicking. As I type this, the Bucks are allowing only 83.4 points/100 possessions. Very good defense. Let me check the offense quick. Whoa! The Bucks are hitting at a 110.6 points/100 possessions. Rock the Green and Red!!!

Ooops, the tide is turning

The Bucks have played a very loose third quarter. They are now at 103.7 pts/100 possessions. Did you hear Alexander's speech in China? What a Gomer! I think I'll have a Offensive/Defensive Win Score Boxscore for the Bucks following the game.

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