Bucks Diary

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Pre Game 2 Forecast: Bucks vs. Thunder


Here is my pregame forecast for the Milwaukee Bucks vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder:

Milw Bucks 95
OKC Thunder 91

I am assuming around 92.5 possessions for the game. And if I do that and go strictly by "Point Value over Average" I should be forecasting a Bucks loss of around five points: Thunder 92 Bucks 87. That's because the Bucks have averaged -4 on offense and around +9 on defense.

But, I am going to go by "trend" instead, and the Bucks offense has been trending up. The Milwaukee Bucks defense has remained by and large below average, but their offense has, over the course of the last three or four games (including exhibitions and last night's opener) been slightly above average. If they can do that same thing tonight, they will win, even if they play bad defense.

I am out on a limb a bit, because there will be a large home court advantage in favor of Oklahoma, being their Inaugural Game with the New Supersonics, and the Bucks are coming off a game last night. But something tells me the Milwaukee Bucks will pull it together and get a win.

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