Bucks Diary

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Andrew Bogut has come of age

The beauty of Marginal Win Score is that its the same concept as Offensive/Defensive Win Score, only better described.

There were two problems with "Defensive" Win Score. It was a misnomer. Many of the statistics recorded by Win Score have nothing to do with defense.

Second, I didn't know if it was fair. Each player doesn't always defend his counterpart opponent all of the time.

Marginal Win Score wipes those problems away. Basically, Marginal Win Score says to each player "It is your duty to play a more efficiently productive game than the guy the other team plays at your position. We don't care how you accomplish it, we just need it done. If you do it -- you help us win, and the longer you do it, the greater that contribution."

Now my statistical system is straightforward and less confusing... yet just as accurate. Plus I can quit adding those caveats to every discussion that annoy Blake. (Though, if I compare the player's counterpart opponents Win Score against the NBA average and its lower, it will stand to reason he's doing it through suppression... which I reserve the right to refer to as "defense" from time to time).

Which brings me to the Andrew Bogut story.

Bogut for MVP?! Eat that Charley Rosen!

Andrew Bogut is having his finest NBA season bar none. His impact on the Bucks is where fans expected it to be (somewhat unrealistically) when the big man entered the Association as the number one overall pick in 2005.

His Marginal Win Score is currently +2.8 and rising. For comparison, his MWS last season was +0.0, and was negative the season before. If you combine his MWS with his 13.5% of the Bucks playing minutes, his Total Win Contribution to the Milwaukee Bucks stands at +0.385. That projects to +5 games above average, and is better than Yao Ming, Shaq, and Kevin Garnett... although Chris Paul's is currently at +0.770... damn you little fella!

How's he doing it? Easy... on the boards and against his men.

Most of Bogut's basic statistics are exactly the same as last season except his per minute rebounding is way up, and his counterpart's effective field goal percentage is way down. Basically those two facts account for his plus margin. (Note: his per minute scoring is actually down, which shows what defense can do).

And that plus margin is a big reason why the Bucks have been able to play a difficult early schedule without key players and still produce a near .500 record. Good day, mate!

Now Bucksfan, show him some love. Bang that frickin' All-Star ballot at the arena and at NBA.com. We actually have an All-Star worthy player. Let's make him one.


At November 25, 2008 at 8:51 PM, Anonymous paul said...

You read my mind Ty, I was going to ask what your calculations were saying about Bogut's season to date as the "RealGM Player Rankings" have him listed at #20 in the league which I'm sure will raise some eyebrows. Many have expressed disappointment at Bogut but imo that is purely based on the narrowminded view of his ppg being down on last season and hasn't taken into account his increased overall production. Great post, let's hope he can keep it up.

On a side note I just read on his blog that he's going to be out for 1-2 weeks with this knee problem, not good.

At November 25, 2008 at 9:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

interesting post

I'm a big Bogut and Bucks fan and I think both Bogut and the Bucks have a great future ahead of them.

Bogut's rebounding, defense and passing have all been excellent and he's actually has a LOT of offensive tools. he could potentially average 20 points a game without too much problem

go Bucks!


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