Bucks Diary

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Bucks need to close the "Steal Gap"

I'm working on an update of the Bucks Player Value Ratings, and I noticed something funny. Check it out. You see anything cockeyed?

The Bucks opponents are stealing the ball from the Bucks at an incredible rate. That's unusual.

There's something else weird. Despite the "steal gap", the turnover margin is nonexistent. So the Bucks are, in general, limiting the so-called "unforced errors", but they are getting nabbed by an unusual amount of theft. What's going on?

I'll tell you exactly what's going on. The Bucks are making a point to run their offense through Andrew Bogut. In general, I'm for that. But early in the season, he was very, very careless with his passes. I noticed it when I was doing the TWC boxscore. Nearly every steal the opponents were getting was from Bogut or Villanueva, and mostly Bogut. You got tighten that up, mate.

If you read this blog, you will know that possessions in basketball are like gold. Therefore basketball turnovers are in many ways just as costly as interceptions or fumbles in football... but we rarely acknowledge their costliness because, compared to football, there are so many more possessions in basketball. But just because there are more doesn't mean any of them are less valuable. They're not.


At November 13, 2008 at 12:35 AM, Anonymous Blake said...

Yes, I've been reading this blog for 2 years and I know that possesions are very important. Mbah a Moute has been doing great on those offensive rebounds, or at least from what i've been seeing. He really helps us get a 2nd chance at putting points on the board.

Tonight he started out slow but I was surprise to watch Moute bounce back and score 11 (I think?)

At November 13, 2008 at 3:27 AM, Blogger TCW said...

I know I have a tendency to repeat myself. And believe me, I hate doing it.

I don't know where the balance is, though. If someone just jumps on and reads one post, I want them to be able to understand it. At the same time I don't want to be so redundant.

Maybe I'll ease up on the constant explanations of my methods and assumptions.

At November 13, 2008 at 3:29 AM, Blogger TCW said...

By the way, thank you for your oontinued readership.

At November 13, 2008 at 9:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Possessions are important. Would it be possible to include the total number of possessions, by team, in your posts? It would be interesting if the team with the most possessions is the winning team. Thanks!!

At November 14, 2008 at 6:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Went to your chart through 9 games and added the following statistics to create possessions. FGA, TRB, STL,TOV(foe), PF (foe) to get total possessions for the nine games. It added up to 1521 for the Bucks. The opposition sum was less. Seems like the Bucks are protecting the ball better than the opposition.


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