Bucks Diary

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Defense is carrying the Bucks at the moment


Let's look at the Bucks in absolute terms using my "Total Win Score" theory. At the moment, the NBA team Win Score per 48 average is 39.8... so its climbing. The Bucks offensive Win Score, however, is not.

As a team, the Bucks Win Score per 48 average is a horrendous 32.2. That breaks down to a scary -1.52 average per court player. That's worse than last season, and last season wasn't good. Under straight Win Score, that average calculates out to 1.4 wins in the Bucks 1704 minutes of action.

If, however, you consider defensive Win Score, as I believe you must, the picture is a bit better. For the first time in a generation, the Bucks are above average in the basketball-reference.com ratings. They are also above average in Opposition Win Score average. The Bucks are allowing a 38.9 Win Score to their Opposition, which is -0.9 under the NBA average, and which figures out to -0.18 per court player.

If you consider both Opposition Win Score and the Bucks Team Win Score, and give each 1/2 value, the Bucks are then average -0.65 per court player. That figures out to 2.7 wins in the Bucks 1704 minutes of action, closer to their actual 3-4 record and closer to their Pythagorean record (3-4 according to basketball-reference.com).

So as you can see, at the moment defense is carrying the Bucks. But I'm leery. I'm not certain the Bucks have faced what financial experts would call a "market basket". In other words, I don't know that their competition thus far is representative of the NBA as a whole. It started out horrible, but has gotten better.

Whatever. The bottom line is the Bucks can be applauded for their defensive effort, but they must find a way to produce better offense. At the moment, the Bucks project out as a 32 win team. If they find offense, that number will rise. Hopefully Michael Redd can help in that regard. And I guess a few less turnovers wouldn't hurt either. Geez are the Bucks sloppy with the ball!

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